Devin Baker

The most obvious tradeoff of our proposed oracle is that the inputs are difficult to obtain. If you want to construct a LeBron James attention oracle, you must first create many different liquid prediction markets for topics related to LeBron. In addition, those markets must stay liquid over time and be replaced with liquid markets as existing ones... See more

The hoped-for results might materialize, or the negative consequences might be felt, or some combination of the two. It must be borne in mind, however, that whereas the negative ramifications from tariffs will probably be felt almost immediately, any gains are likely to come only in the long run, following a multi-year period of adjustment.

When bitcoin is in a deep bear market, its market capitalization has historically dipped a bit below its on-chain cost basis. When bitcoin is near or below its cost basis, that has historically been an excellent buying opportunity, and in the past I’ve pounded the table on it when it reached those levels. There’s no guarantee it’ll reach those lows... See more

Consider cash to have a zero duration, technology stocks to have long duration (because they pay-off far into the future), counted, say, in decades, and Bitcoin to have a near infinite duration, because it pays no dividends and is never redeemed. If follows that, with just these three asset choices, an investor with an investment time horizon of,... See more

The dollar is different. It’s the main currency that entities around the world do hold for long periods of time. Since the dollar is used for those four previously-described purposes internationally, it means there is excess demand for the dollar by entities around the world above and beyond simply interacting with the American economy or financial... See more

But the opportunity for Attention Assets goes far beyond pricing equities. We believe that predicting attention is an economically valuable activity. Attention is a leading indicator to consumer preferences and spending. Businesses allocate R&D, hiring, and marketing dollars depending on where attention goes. It is a matter of figuring out new... See more

Crypto is valued the way money is valued: by beliefs, reflexivity, scarcity, and collateral utility.

Money is not a business.

Money is not a network product.

Money is a coordination technology with:

•reflexive trust

•role in collateral hierarchy

•function as energy storage

•function as global settlement rail

•macro-hedge dynamics

•political neutrality... See more