Devin Baker

While more debt is not always bad, the lesson of history is that excessive private sector debt is often deflationary, whereas too much public sector debt is inflationary .

Seed Club is a participant-owned venture network. It’s a bet that doing venture capital from the first principles of a network instead of the first principles of a firm will create dramatically more interesting outcomes.

It’s a subtle but fundamental shift. It means that instead of the organization at large being narrowly focused on investing... See more

This means that the dollar tends to be structurally overvalued on a trade balance basis. It trades based on all of the normal fundamentals that other currencies do, but then also has this extra layer of demand at all times, for all these various purposes. Most currencies are primarily used by the country that issues them, whereas the dollar is used... See more

The Radical Portfolio’s core thesis is 60% Compliance / 40% Resistance.

Peter Turchin calls the driver of today’s status pressure elite overproduction. When a society creates more elites and elite aspirants than there are elite positions, competition intensifies, instability rises, and status conflict spills into politics and culture.

The unusually prosperous boomer decades produced more elite aspirants than legacy... See more

Before we get to the crack-up-boom phase in this crypto bull market, I believe the crypto markets will experience a harrowing dump around Trump’s January 20th 2025 inauguration day. Maelstrom will be lightening up on certain positions in advance, hoping to rebuy some core positions at lower prices sometime in 1H25. Obviously, every trader says this... See more

so, what's the onchain equivalent to substack?

hypersub.

hypersub is the economic infrastructure for future communities, the financial rail that empowers creators to build their communities through media and channels that best align with any evolving brand.

like substack, it provides a direct creator-audience relationship that aligns incentives... See more

In parallel, key performance indicators (KPIs) will shift. The crypto industry’s focus will transition from speculative token trading and Total Value Locked (TVL) to more adoption-driven metrics such as daily active users (DAUs), transaction volumes, and user retention. Projects that align their growth strategies with user-centric KPIs will gain a... See more

That taste for outsized risk has seeped into everyday culture. Wage growth has severely lagged compounded capital, causing ordinary people to increasingly see their best shot at real upward mobility in negative EV jackpots. Online gambling, 0DTE options, retail meme stocks, sports betting, and crypto memecoins all testify to the phenomena of... See more