Devin Baker

On the precipice of this next transformation of the internet, DeepSeek’s release created a watershed moment for open source. It has also resurfaced the drawbacks of OSS, namely coordination challenges and a lack of clear business model. This is precisely where token-based market structures like Bittensor's emerge as a compelling solution. Token... See more

The story is that Brown would arrive at an estate and spend months walking the grounds with the owner, studying the contours of the land, the fall of light across a hillside, the path of an existing stream, the position of mature trees that had been growing for centuries before anyone thought to design around them, and pronounce after much... See more

Right on schedule, just like almost every other year, it will be time to sell in the late stages of the first quarter and chill on the beach, at the clerb, or on a ski resort in the southern hemisphere and wait for positive fiat liquidity conditions to re-emerge in the third quarter.

Indeed, persistence often requires that one change one's mind. That's where good judgement comes in. The persistent are quite rational. They focus on expected value. It's this, not recklessness, that lets them work on things that are unlikely to succeed.

Put another way, the liquidity of the private sector is determined by the size of its asset holdings divided by their average duration . Thus, any change in average duration must result in a change in ‘liquidity’. These actions are not limited to the US Federal Reserve, because the US Treasury is also a major debt issuer. If the Treasury changes... See more

QE (quantitative easing) operations essentially involve asset swaps. The Fed balance sheet expands by the Fed buying securities in the open market and simultaneously injecting liquidity as payment. Balance sheets still balance, but the Fed’s balance sheet has grown larger and the private sector’s balance sheet has changed its composition and,... See more

If factors affecting TGA balances were the only things that determined crypto prices, then I would expect a local market top right at the end of the first quarter. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a local high of ~$73,000 in mid-March, then traded sideways, and began its multi-month decline on April 11th right before the 15th tax payment deadline.

Fred Wilson pointed out that being onchain opens up the opportunity to build an AmEx-like loyalty program where all the loyalty points are onchain.

“$FLY is like a stablecoin. It’s not something like Bitcoin where you buy it and hope it goes to $100k,” he said. “But the idea of taking loyalty points onchain is a big deal.”

Specifically, it will... See more

How early or late you are to something is now an essential component of your relationship to that thing. The timelines and reels that represent “what is going on” are increasingly about a single meta-topic: are you predicting it, or is it predicting you? This has become the main thing that you feel. And it is a complete break from the postmodern... See more