Devin Baker

Increasingly infrastructure will trade at revenue multiples, and consumer tokens will trade at much more valuable memetic multiples.

As the hero, you get to stand up to those notions and reframe who you are. You get to teach those around you about who you have become. And this last phase—the landing, the integration, the return—cannot be avoided. Because if you refuse to return home, if you refuse to integrate, then your life just gets heavier. You end up with all of this... See more

Looking ahead, the US is likely to see lower policy rates (circa 3%) and increased liquidity stimulus despite near-term inflation risks, as supply-side shocks from higher tariffs (taxes) slow growth and eventually curb price pressures. The Fed and Treasury are employing unconventional tools – including ‘Not-QE, QE’ (backdoor liquidity injections),... See more

A typical liquidity cycle lasts 5-6 years from trough-to-trough and, based on the October-2022 low point, we expect the current cycle to peak around Q4 this year.

To sum it up in very basic terms, USD liquidity increases and decreases under the following circumstances:

USD Liquidity — Number Go Up:

Fed Balance Sheet — Increases

RRP Balances — Decreases

TGA — Decreases

USD Liquidity — Number Go Down:

Fed Balance Sheet — Decreases

RRP Balances — Increases

TGA — Increases

Historically, currencies like the USD acted as abstraction layers, allowing us to translate the value of apples, houses, and stocks into a single universal language. Tokenization obliterates this framework. It makes anything exchangeable for anything else. Imagine swapping loyalty points for a stake in a music NFT or trading your onchain... See more

Other than the US, the largest global exporters in order of size are China (currency: yuan), the EU (currency: euro), the United Kingdom (currency: pound), and Japan (currency: yen). The dollar must decline against all these currencies to encourage a company on the margin to relocate production inside America.

There’s a two-sided bubble at play here, too. The Trump Administration is telling people that it will be easier to build, invest in, and accomplish big things, which is already making people more excited to build, invest in, and accomplish big things. The more energy and excitement there is behind what people are building, the easier it will be for... See more

Fred Wilson pointed out that being onchain opens up the opportunity to build an AmEx-like loyalty program where all the loyalty points are onchain.

“$FLY is like a stablecoin. It’s not something like Bitcoin where you buy it and hope it goes to $100k,” he said. “But the idea of taking loyalty points onchain is a big deal.”

Specifically, it will... See more