Investing

When AI demand forces real-world infrastructure investment, not just chips but everything around them, the broader business cycle follows. Semiconductor sales were the ignition. The next leg is second-order CapEx and real-world infrastructure buildout.

As that capital makes its way through the system, the broader cycle re-accelerates.

To me, this is... See more

Global semiconductor sales remain very strong, but the impulse growth phase has now passed. And this is where the cycle shifts...

Once the chips are dispatched, the rest of the AI and robotics ecosystem has to be built around them. Data centres need power, cooling, networking, storage, and grid upgrades. Factories need automation, sensors, robotics... See more

More specifically, 2025 was the first year of the Trump four-year term in which he had control of both houses, which is classically the best year for presidents to push through what they want, so we saw his administration’s all-out aggressive bet on capitalism—i.e., the aggressively stimulative fiscal policy, reducing regulations so that money and... See more

a) the Trump administration’s domestic economic policies were and still are a levered bet on the power of capitalism to revitalize American manufacturing and enable American AI technology, which contributed to the market movements I described above,

b) its foreign policy has scared and turned off some foreign investors as fears of sanctions and... See more

Regarding 1) what happened to the value of money: the dollar fell by 0.3% against the yen, 4% against the renminbi, 12% against the euro, 13% against the Swiss franc, and 39% against gold (which is the second largest reserve currency and the only major non-fiat currency). So, all fiat currencies fell, and the biggest story and the biggest market... See more

While most people see US stocks and particularly US AI stocks to be the best investments and hence the biggest investment story of 2025, it is indisputably true that the biggest returns (and hence the biggest story) came from 1) what happened to the value of money (most importantly the dollar, other fiat currencies, and gold) and 2) US stocks... See more

The truth is, credible neutrality is a scaling advantage, not just an ideology. Just like how institutions globally choose Bitcoin for its reliability, neutrality, and ability to minimize long-term counterparty risk, they’ll also choose Ethereum and Solana.

And the thing about credible neutrality, is that like all forms of trust, it can only be... See more

i read + annotated the entire 300+ page Messari 2026 thesis on a long-haul flight so you didn’t have to… my thoughts + takeaways: > the entire thing took me about 3hrs to cover back to back (better than expected). My 3 fav essays were “crypto money”, “tradfi x crypto”, and “decentralized Internet finance”.... See more

there are roughly two categories of tokens

> tokens that are money (ex. stores of value)

> tokens that make money (ex. productive assets)

i think the money tokens (BTC, ETH, SOL, etc) are better understood and further along in their adoption

so i won’t explore these ‘are money' tokens in this thread

the piece that actually feels broken to me

the... See more