Investing

Thrive was founded to be an enabling technology for the world we want to see. We are deeply aware that we are not the main character. The founders that we are fortunate enough to partner with are the artists. Our role is to help create the conditions where great work can come to life.

Finance is undergoing a transformation from a distinct vertical sector into a horizontal substrate. As markets become more expressive and accessible, finance is becoming embedded into culture, and culture itself is increasingly expressed through finance. Simultaneously, as markets become permissionless software, they accelerate their role as change... See more

Gambling and trading address lower-rung needs: security (hit a big lick to escape your economic situation)—and maybe (just maybe) community, like when WallStreetBets tries to stick it to Citadel, or you bet on your team with friends. Investing maps closer to the top of the hierarchy: self-actualization and purpose. Owning a home is the American... See more

Many of the talented people I've met and worked with in crypto have followed some version of a common trajectory: from getting humbled on a moonshot token, to learning to manage risk as a trader, to becoming a more sophisticated, long-term investor. Even in losing, a gambler who gets wiped out and decides to only place bets on things they know... See more

In hindsight, the 2020 thesis was correct about people wanting economic upside in the things they know and care about. But whereas I thought it would expand to ownership in all of the products you use every day, skeuomorphic to employee stock options, in reality the opportunity turned out to be skin-in-the-game on anything you have conviction... See more

But the punch line is this: the catalyst came from non-crypto tradfi derisking, which happened to push Bitcoin down to a level where short gamma accelerated the downside due to hedging, but not directional, activities which in turn led to the requirement for more inventory- this then reversed quickly on 2/6 for tradfi market neutral (but... See more

In a sense, one could argue that Bitcoin, and perhaps to an even greater extent Ethereum, Solana, and their peers, are essentially "SaaS" solutions. You pay a fee to the network to execute code; the protocol is the software, and the gas fee is the subscription. While that is admittedly stretching the definition, especially given the massive... See more

Our mistake at GMI was not seeing the US liquidity as the current driving factor, when it is usually Global Total Liquidity that dominates over the full cycle. But now it is clear, and it is still The Everything Code at play...

There is no disconnect. It's just that the confluence of events Reverse Repo drained >TGA rebuild > Shutdown >... See more

Warsh will cut rates and do nothing else. He will get out of the way of Trump and Bessent who will run liquidity via the banks. Mirran will likely force through the full reduction in the eSLR too in order to goose the process.