Investing

Right on schedule, just like almost every other year, it will be time to sell in the late stages of the first quarter and chill on the beach, at the clerb, or on a ski resort in the southern hemisphere and wait for positive fiat liquidity conditions to re-emerge in the third quarter.

It’s also funny because the conversation is super contentious and confusing in PoS world, but that’s also where it’s the least important:

The point of a free market, though, is that while it can be messier in the short-run than a centrally-planned one, it leaves room for market-based solutions that can be better in the long-run.

When people argue that “issuance is a cost” in PoS networks, it’s usually a fuzzy attempt to get at “isn’t inflation bad for token value capture somehow? It seems like it should be bad, right?” However, the only real expense to token holders in aggregate is the payment made to operators. This is usually seen in staking commissions in PoS vs. PoW wh... See more

“I was discussing bitcoin with an investor yesterday and he replied somewhat dismissively ‘It’s just like buying gold’. No, it’s like buying gold in 1000 B.C. 99% of the financial wealth has yet to address bitcoin. When they do, bitcoin is either going to be worth zero or [up orders of magnitude].”

So far, this post has focused almost exclusively on tokens’ ability to capture value by generating income streams for their holders. They are productive capital assets. This may very well be sufficient to value most tokens in the long-run. Equity-like analysis will do the trick here. Think DCF and DDM.

However, valuing tokens based on cash flows rem... See more

Let me be clear: the US can print more money without hyperinflation than China can. Trump and Bessent have made it very clear that this is what they intend to do. Therefore, Xi will allow the yuan-dollar exchange rate to float, which in the near term means the yuan will depreciate.

The sillier conversations have been happening on the PoS side. There are a lot more variables at play to get confused over, and we all want our own bags to be special. But we need to stop looking at silly metrics then drawing incorrect conclusions around sustainability. It’s silly to say that Solana is unprofitable or unsustainable. At most, you ca... See more

If factors affecting TGA balances were the only things that determined crypto prices, then I would expect a local market top right at the end of the first quarter. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a local high of ~$73,000 in mid-March, then traded sideways, and began its multi-month decline on April 11th right before the 15th tax payment deadline.