Asymmetric Market Update™️ #25

We believe that growth will hold up while inflation stays tame (if not drift to the target of the next year or more). In that scenario, real rates can easily come down to 1.5% (or lower), which enables another 100bps of cuts without too much imagination. As this comes to fruition, money will again flow from wealth preservation assets to wealth crea... See more

The crypto Venture capital predictions for 2025 are coming in hot. Top forecasts highlight a decisive shift toward user-facing applications, stablecoin adoption as a tool to lower business transaction costs, and significant advancements in infrastructure scalability.

Now, many potential catalysts for Bitcoin (and crypto generally) will rise in 2025. Here are a few:

• A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (at the U.S. Federal level)


• Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (at the U.S. State level)


• Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (for other countries globally)


• The removal of SAB-121


• Clear regulations out of the SEC and CFTC on crypto


• The Stablecoin

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Another pressing topic for 2025 is the role of stablecoins in reducing transaction costs . Many businesses, especially in e-commerce and cross-border payments, grapple with high fees imposed by traditional financial systems. Stablecoins provide a compelling alternative, offering lower costs, faster settlements, and greater transparency. Businesses ... See more

In parallel, key performance indicators (KPIs) will shift. The crypto industry’s focus will transition from speculative token trading and Total Value Locked (TVL) to more adoption-driven metrics such as daily active users (DAUs), transaction volumes, and user retention. Projects that align their growth strategies with user-centric KPIs will gain a ... See more

To bridge this gap, venture capital will likely prioritize projects that simplify onboarding processes and offer intuitive user interfaces . Applications with clear value propositions, catering to both retail and institutional audiences, will take center stage. Examples include wallets with seamless fiat-to-crypto transitions, decentralized finance... See more