Macro

We believe that growth will hold up while inflation stays tame (if not drift to the target of the next year or more). In that scenario, real rates can easily come down to 1.5% (or lower), which enables another 100bps of cuts without too much imagination. As this comes to fruition, money will again flow from wealth preservation assets to wealth crea... See more

At the end of the day, continued fiscal deficits will increase US public debts, which requires more liquidity, more monetization and more currency debasement.

Which is good news for holders of scarce assets (equities, RE, gold, BTC, crypto).

On January 1st, the US debt ceiling will be reinstated (based on the amount of debt outstanding on that date). Until legislation is passed to raise or suspend the debt ceiling (yet again), the US Treasury will have to tap cash on hand in the TGA to finance its spending obligations.

In a world where the Fed — and other central banks — are driving 5-7% annual debasement of their currencies, investors need to make more like 10-15% annual returns to outpace this loss in future purchasing power.

Before we get to the crack-up-boom phase in this crypto bull market, I believe the crypto markets will experience a harrowing dump around Trump’s January 20th 2025 inauguration day. Maelstrom will be lightening up on certain positions in advance, hoping to rebuy some core positions at lower prices sometime in 1H25. Obviously, every trader says this... See more

Trump is an astute politician and knows his base. To me, that means he must go big early, which is why my money is on a massive dollar vs. gold devaluation early into his first 100 days in office. It is an easy way to make production costs globally competitive in America quickly. It will lead to an immediate re-shoring of productive capacity, leadi... See more

Let me be clear: the US can print more money without hyperinflation than China can. Trump and Bessent have made it very clear that this is what they intend to do. Therefore, Xi will allow the yuan-dollar exchange rate to float, which in the near term means the yuan will depreciate.

If the US government creates more dollars via a gold devaluation and uses some of those dollars to buy Bitcoin, its fiat price will rise. This will in turn spur competitive sovereign purchases by other nations who have to play catchup with the US. The price of Bitcoin then would rise asymptotically, because why would anyone sell Bitcoin and receive... See more