Macro

Crypto is valued the way money is valued: by beliefs, reflexivity, scarcity, and collateral utility.

Money is not a business.

Money is not a network product.

Money is a coordination technology with:

•reflexive trust

•role in collateral hierarchy

•function as energy storage

•function as global settlement rail

•macro-hedge dynamics

•political neutrality... See more

The generational wealth imbalance is not a problem that America will solve.

It is a pressure gradient the system will route around.

And the routing takes the following shape:

•AI becomes the new productivity engine

•Bitcoin becomes the new neutral store of value

•stablecoins become the transactional layer

•fiscal policy keeps real growth from collapsing

•... See more

Bitcoin is not popular with millennials and Gen Z because they are rebellious or ideological.

It is because:

It is the only major asset where the asset base is not already owned by the seventy-plus cohort.

Housing? Owned.

Equities? Owned.

Bonds? Owned.

Private equity? Owned.

Land? Owned.

Bitcoin is the only vessel where younger cohorts can accumulate a... See more

You have a society where:

•the young produce most of the real economic output

•the old own most of the financial claims on that output

That is not capitalism.

That is not socialism.

It is a hybrid pressure cooker that has only one escape valve.

4. That escape valve is non custodial, non political, non permissioned digital asset accumulation.

The composition of household spending transformed completely. In 2024, food-at-home is no longer 33% of household spending. For most families, it’s 5 to 7 percent.

Housing now consumes 35 to 45 percent. Healthcare takes 15 to 25 percent. Childcare, for families with young children, can eat 20 to 40 percent.

If you keep Orshansky’s logic—if you... See more

The official poverty line for a family of four in 2024 is $31,200. The median household income is roughly $80,000. We have been told, implicitly, that a family earning $80,000 is doing fine—safely above poverty, solidly middle class, perhaps comfortable.

But if Orshansky’s crisis threshold were calculated today using her own methodology, that... See more

It also follows, as noted, that duration and liquidity should typically correlate together: more liquidity forces investors into longer duration investments. Another irony in this story is that technology stocks are long duration i.e. high P/E investments and largely outside the ‘value’ framework. However, they are exactly the assets that gain most... See more

Consider cash to have a zero duration, technology stocks to have long duration (because they pay-off far into the future), counted, say, in decades, and Bitcoin to have a near infinite duration, because it pays no dividends and is never redeemed. If follows that, with just these three asset choices, an investor with an investment time horizon of,... See more