Macro

Timing the Liquidity Cycle: Long term 65-month cycle

The financial system's reliance on a "debt-refinancing loop" further highlights this cyclical dependency, where policymakers need to continually expand liquidity to prevent crises. It is a long-term swing in Global Liquidity that has been identified as having a 5-6 year period, specifically... See more

In this debt-dominated system, policymakers face the necessity to continually expand liquidity to prevent crises that could arise from collateral shortages and rollover risks. This constant expansion of liquidity in the broader financial system, aimed at preventing instability, makes assets that can hedge against currency debasement, such as... See more

The financial system is currently characterized by a "debt-refinancing loop," where approximately 75% of transactions involve refinancing existing debt. This environment creates a strong dependency on collateral (e.g., Treasuries, high-quality bonds) and the overall balance sheet capacity, which is precisely what Global Liquidity measures.

Global Liquidity takes an international perspective, considering liquidity created by multiple monetary authorities, including central banks outside the US like China's PBoC. It also accounts for private sector credit provision through various channels, such as banks, repo markets, and shadow banks. Importantly, it embraces the concept of the... See more

Unlike traditional measures like World M2 money supply, which primarily track retail deposits, Global Liquidity is a wholesale measure that focuses on the asset or credit side of the financial system. It captures the capacity of the entire world financial system to create credit and facilitate transactions. This is crucial because, as noted by... See more

four things you need to invest appropriately in 2020+

• the dollar is being devalued aggressively

• all parabolas on any asset eventually go -60/70%

• narrative & story around long theses drive just as much of returns as revenue generation if not more

• compound winners

The Ideological Investor does not abandon analysis but reorients it. Instead of treating geopolitics, technology, or culture as “externalities” to be hedged, they treat them as the primary drivers of value. This means integrating geopolitical intelligence into risk analysis, and treating AI not merely as an industry to bet on but as a structural... See more

We are now entering an age of the “Ideological Investor”—an allocator of capital in a world where markets are refracted through geopolitics, technology, and culture, and the stakes could not be higher for retail investors to take note. To navigate this new era, I propose the consideration of three ideological pillars that define investment risk and... See more