Macro

There was nothing anyone could say they “knew,” and that included me. I was limited to gaming out my conclusions, which were as follows:

• we can’t confidently predict the end of the world,


• we’d have no idea what to do if we knew the world would end,


• the things we’d do to gird for the end of the world would be disastrous if it didn’t end, and


• most of the

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The dollar is different. It’s the main currency that entities around the world do hold for long periods of time. Since the dollar is used for those four previously-described purposes internationally, it means there is excess demand for the dollar by entities around the world above and beyond simply interacting with the American economy or financial... See more

Other than the US, the largest global exporters in order of size are China (currency: yuan), the EU (currency: euro), the United Kingdom (currency: pound), and Japan (currency: yen). The dollar must decline against all these currencies to encourage a company on the margin to relocate production inside America.

We believe that growth will hold up while inflation stays tame (if not drift to the target of the next year or more). In that scenario, real rates can easily come down to 1.5% (or lower), which enables another 100bps of cuts without too much imagination. As this comes to fruition, money will again flow from wealth preservation assets to wealth crea... See more

A typical liquidity cycle lasts 5-6 years from trough-to-trough and, based on the October-2022 low point, we expect the current cycle to peak around Q4 this year.

While deficits of $1T+ per year, with debt repayments of nearly $1T themselves, people think this is unsustainable short term and will combust. I disagree, there is atleast a 5-10 year runway without the existential crisis, however as I said in TechDollar 1, it will get worse every year, the money printing will exacerbate all the issues internally ... See more

A central theme in Howell’s analysis is the assertion that liquidity flows have become crucial in understanding the modern financial landscape. In recent years, particularly since the global financial crisis, the nature of capital investment has evolved. Interest rates, which historically served as a critical indicator of capital allocation, have b... See more

Consider the contrast with centrally planned economies. USSR’s economic model, for instance, relied on predetermined outputs and strategic decisions made by a select committee of party officials. It's a system that wins praise for its ability to mobilize massive resources toward national priorities but is widely faulted for its inflexibility. Centr... See more

Gold historically was the underlying monetary system until recently. Modern tech is by far, more important than gold now, and isn’t essential currently for a reserve system, as tech is much more important to underpin an economic system. Institutions and govts will take tech over gold now .