Macro

So as long as the govt is running deficits that it has to monetize in order to pay for, inflation will continue at much higher rates.

The delta between the value of the modern tech infrastructure, and the price they are selling their products at, the USD will remain supreme until this ends. To think of it another way, ask someone how much you would need to pay them to not use a modern smartphone/iPhone. Or ask a business how much they would have to be paid to not use modern... See more

It is very important to my near-term positions whether I believe money printing will continue and accelerate after Trump’s 20 January 2025 coronation. That is because I think there exists a wide gap between crypto investor’s high expectations for how quickly Trump can change things and the reality that there are no politically acceptable solutions... See more

Even though they will be devaluing the value of cash via money printing, during this process, it will be worth holding, in order to acquire assets, particularly illiquid ones that produce real goods and real cash flows.

If factors affecting TGA balances were the only things that determined crypto prices, then I would expect a local market top right at the end of the first quarter. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a local high of ~$73,000 in mid-March, then traded sideways, and began its multi-month decline on April 11th right before the 15th tax payment deadline.

Gold historically was the underlying monetary system until recently. Modern tech is by far, more important than gold now, and isn’t essential currently for a reserve system, as tech is much more important to underpin an economic system. Institutions and govts will take tech over gold now .

As long as this exists, and the tech infrastructure is priced and sold in USD, the USD remains supreme worldwide. This is what is actually still underpinning western global dominance and enabling American power. Not any other reason most people espouse.

Looking ahead, the US is likely to see lower policy rates (circa 3%) and increased liquidity stimulus despite near-term inflation risks, as supply-side shocks from higher tariffs (taxes) slow growth and eventually curb price pressures. The Fed and Treasury are employing unconventional tools – including ‘Not-QE, QE’ (backdoor liquidity injections),... See more

Trump is an astute politician and knows his base. To me, that means he must go big early, which is why my money is on a massive dollar vs. gold devaluation early into his first 100 days in office. It is an easy way to make production costs globally competitive in America quickly. It will lead to an immediate re-shoring of productive capacity,... See more