Macro

Other than the US, the largest global exporters in order of size are China (currency: yuan), the EU (currency: euro), the United Kingdom (currency: pound), and Japan (currency: yen). The dollar must decline against all these currencies to encourage a company on the margin to relocate production inside America.

Right on schedule, just like almost every other year, it will be time to sell in the late stages of the first quarter and chill on the beach, at the clerb, or on a ski resort in the southern hemisphere and wait for positive fiat liquidity conditions to re-emerge in the third quarter.

In a world where the Fed — and other central banks — are driving 5-7% annual debasement of their currencies, investors need to make more like 10-15% annual returns to outpace this loss in future purchasing power.

While more debt is not always bad, the lesson of history is that excessive private sector debt is often deflationary, whereas too much public sector debt is inflationary .

Trump advocates the re-industrialization of America to help those who want good manufacturing jobs and those who wish to possess a strong military. To do so requires reversing the imbalances built under the Petroyuan system. This will be accomplished by weakening the dollar, providing tax grants and subsidies to produce things domestically, and der... See more

Trump is an astute politician and knows his base. To me, that means he must go big early, which is why my money is on a massive dollar vs. gold devaluation early into his first 100 days in office. It is an easy way to make production costs globally competitive in America quickly. It will lead to an immediate re-shoring of productive capacity, leadi... See more

Everyone was happy to buy 18-24-36 months ago, when the horizon was cloudless and asset prices were sky-high. Now, with heretofore unimaginable risks on the table and priced in, it’s appropriate to sniff around for bargains: the babies that are being thrown out with the bath water. We’re on the case.

Global liquidity levels have stabilized following the Q4 dip. Four factors are underpinning them: (1) Improving Central Bank liquidity, due to the PBoC and ECB. Fed liquidity remains a cause for concern. (2) Collateral values (bonds) which are picking up, in part helped by (3) the loss of momentum in the US dollar. And finally (4), bond market vola... See more

If factors affecting TGA balances were the only things that determined crypto prices, then I would expect a local market top right at the end of the first quarter. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a local high of ~$73,000 in mid-March, then traded sideways, and began its multi-month decline on April 11th right before the 15th tax payment deadline.