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A central theme in Howell’s analysis is the assertion that liquidity flows have become crucial in understanding the modern financial landscape. In recent years, particularly since the global financial crisis, the nature of capital investment has evolved. Interest rates, which historically served as a critical indicator of capital allocation, have b... See more
The Dynamics of Global Liquidity and Cycles
- If history is any guide, the USD is about to peak cyclically, in line with our interest rate view.
Joe McCann • Asymmetric Market Update™️ #25
Thus the United States does not just have a growing income gap; it also has a growing happiness gap.
Jean M. Twenge • Generations
The economy “wants” to grow more than the 3.5% per year, which constitutes the current “speed limit” that the Federal Reserve bank and other policy makers have established as “safe,” meaning noninflationary. The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate. Restricting the growth rate of the economy to an arbitrary li... See more
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
The structural barriers that protected information advantages have dissolved. Tiger Global's legendary research operation—once a differentiating force with hundreds of analysts producing proprietary market maps and competitive landscapes is over. Today, a solo GP with access to Deep Research can generate comparable analysis in hours, not months, an... See more
Lawrence Lundy-Bryan • data-driven VC is over
The most expensive stocks currently are generally the defensive non-cyclical ones. The strong performance of the S&P 500 as of late is not because investors are crowding into bullish cyclical stocks on a strong economy; they’ve instead crowded into wide-moat “sure thing” risk-off stocks with low earnings volatility, such as big tech and compani
... See moreLyn Alden • Deep Dive: Emerging Markets
Therefore, unless the US Fed restarts QE, the omens for Global Liquidity are not great. Does this mean that investors face a threatening financial crisis? We are not this downbeat simply because the heightened demands for debt refinancing that so offer trigger crises are unlikely to bite until 2026. However, a future threat remains, even if we are ... See more
Michael Howell • US Fed QE Needs to Restart Fast
Average loss ratio. Some sectors are higher risk than others. For the past couple of decades, for example, social media has been particularly challenging, with Meta acquiring or suffocating insurgents. If the sector you operate in has a high loss ratio, you may want greater diversification.