data-driven VC is over

Externally, wisdom looks like as decisiveness without impulsivity—passing on perfect-on-paper deals because something feels misaligned, or backing technically flawed pitches because you sense exceptional founder adaptability. These aren't random emotional reactions but sophisticated processing systems integrating multiple streams: micro-expressions... See more

What are we left with? Investing for emotional reasons. Or for reasons that cannot be supported by data. This is likely to be difficult for bigger funds with more institutional decision-making processes managing more AUM. Gut feel is easier for angels, micro-VCs and maybe solo-GPs. Emerging managers to tend to outperform peers in terms of returns, ... See more

Are we back to the good old days of actual contrarian thinking? When a16 invested in Airbnb, market analysis suggested the short-term rental market was too niche and regulatory barriers too high. Their willingness to override consensus analysis—precisely the kind that research agents excel at producing—led to one of venture capital's greatest retur... See more

Research agents will accelerate this convergence, with algorithmic analysis driving firms toward identical conclusions about opportunities.

DR has commoditized “thesis development” and “market research” in VC so larger AUM and more resources no longer an advantage

The structural barriers that protected information advantages have dissolved. Tiger Global's legendary research operation—once a differentiating force with hundreds of analysts producing proprietary market maps and competitive landscapes is over. Today, a solo GP with access to Deep Research can generate comparable analysis in hours, not months, an... See more