US Fed QE Needs to Restart Fast

In our view, Trump 2.0 wants a strong US dollar because it helps on-going tariff negotiations and the President’s demand that more firms produce in the US homeland. The Fed/ Treasury may be party to these ploys, and this may explain both the Fed’s reticence about future QE and the Treasury’s reluctance to use the TGA, which in the past has been emp... See more

Therefore, unless the US Fed restarts QE, the omens for Global Liquidity are not great. Does this mean that investors face a threatening financial crisis? We are not this downbeat simply because the heightened demands for debt refinancing that so offer trigger crises are unlikely to bite until 2026. However, a future threat remains, even if we are ... See more

With growing demands coming from pending debt roll-overs as the ‘maturity wall’ of debt termed out during the COVID emergency comes nearer, to say nothing of the 30% of US Treasury debt that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent must refinance, the Fed will be forced to raise US liquidity levels.