Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
imagining and comparing the consequences of several hunting strategies.
Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie • The Book of Why
Les experts hérissons creusaient un sillon très profondément, mais très étroit. Certains avaient passé toute leur carrière à étudier une seule question. Comme Ehrlich et Simon, ils établissaient des théories bien propres sur le fonctionnement du monde à travers les seules lentilles de leur spécialité, et tordaient tous les événements pour qu’ils s’
... See moreDavid Epstein • Range : Le règne des généralistes : Pourquoi ils triomphent dans un monde de spécialistes (Business) (French Edition)
Good Judgment Project.
David Epstein • Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
His advantage: he thinks like a scientist. He’s passionately dispassionate.
Adam Grant • Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know
His studies, which spanned more than fifteen years, were eventually published in the 2005 book Expert Political Judgment. Tetlock’s conclusion was damning. The experts in his survey—regardless of their occupation, experience, or subfield—had done barely any better than random chance, and they had done worse than even rudimentary statistical methods
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Account for degree of difficulty.
Adam Grant • Hidden Potential
So is reality clocklike or cloud-like?
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
The illusion that one has understood the past feeds the further illusion that one can predict and control the future.