Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

we must run carefully crafted experiments. Assemble forecasters. Ask them large numbers of questions with precise time frames and unambiguous language. Require that forecasts be expressed using numerical probability scales. And wait for time to pass. If the researchers have done their jobs, the results will be clear.

Sometimes forecasts are used to advance political agendas and galvanize action

superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior judgment does not come effortlessly. Only the determined can deliver it reasonably consistently, which is why our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to

aggregating the judgments of an equal number of people who know lots about lots of different things is most effective because the collective pool of information becomes much bigger.

Animated by a Big Idea, hedgehogs tell tight, simple, clear stories that grab and hold audiences.

Here, the right test of skill would be whether a forecaster can do better than mindlessly predicting no change.

he created a database containing hundreds of information sources—from the New York Times to obscure blogs—that are tagged by their ideological orientation, subject matter, and geographical origin, then wrote a program that selects what he should read next using criteria that emphasize diversity.

System 1 comes first. It is fast and constantly running in the background. If a question is asked and you instantly know the answer, it sprang from System 1. System 2 is charged with interrogating that answer. Does it stand up to scrutiny? Is it backed by evidence?

And some forecasts are meant to comfort