Sublime

And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

Measuring the link between the attribute and the brand

if people intentionally choose to do things that could plausibly diminish their performance, then any subsequent performance decrements can be explained away as not reflecting their innate abilities.

In the wise guys method, you look for individuals who can accurately predict how other people will bet, but whose own bet is different. The logic is that if you can predict other people's bets, then you know the common knowledge. But if your opinion is also different than everyone else's, then you must know something they don't.

For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded. It

Research suggests that identifying even a single reason why we might be wrong can be enough to curb overconfidence.

How do you make an informed decision when the very act of informing it jeopardizes the outcome?

Extreme predictions and a willingness to predict rare events from weak evidence are both manifestations of System 1.