The essay concerned how we should adjust probabilities when we encounter new data,

But failure carries with it one huge antifragile gift: learning.

In other words, trial and error carries the precious commodity of information.

The second thing we can do is to learn how to fail properly. Failing properly has two major components. First, never take a risk that will do you in completely. (Never get taken out of the game completely.) Second, develop the personal resilience to learn from your failures and start again. With these two rules, you can only fail temporarily.

The first one is what Wall Street traders would call “upside optionality”, that is, seeking out situations that we expect have good odds of offering us opportunities.

Asymmetries: Finally, you need to think about something we might call “metaprobability”—the probability that your probability estimates themselves are any good.

Any new information you encounter that challenges a prior simply means that the probability of that prior being true may be reduced. Eventually some priors are replaced completely. This is an ongoing cycle of challenging and validating what you believe you know.

heuristics

How you’ll balance the need for higher-order thinking with practical, limiting judgment must be taken on a case-by-case basis.