mj

Smart venture firms are adopting the private equity playbook with remarkable success. Concentrated portfolios enable deeper partnerships with portfolio companies. When you have 15 investments instead of 50, each receives meaningful attention. This hands-on approach drives faster growth, better operational metrics, and ultimately shorter paths to... See more

What both of these approaches mean is that the outlier needs to convince other people to see what they see. But here's the thing: early-stage deals often look, well, completely ridiculous.

The second dimension of skill is the crucial one -and that 's relative skill. You can imagine the skill of players falling along a bell -shaped distribution. The point is that the bell is getting skinnier in a lot of domains, which means that the difference between the very best and the average participant is less today than it was a generation or... See more

But the very factor that causes market inefficiency -correlated beliefs -makes exploiting that inefficiency difficult. The desire to be part of the crowd is pow erful, and being apart from the crowd is scary for most

There is no better place to deploy an AI-powered solution than where a local human labor bubble exists.

What are we left with? Investing for emotional reasons. Or for reasons that cannot be supported by data. This is likely to be difficult for bigger funds with more institutional decision-making processes managing more AUM. Gut feel is easier for angels, micro-VCs and maybe solo-GPs. Emerging managers to tend to outperform peers in terms of returns,... See more

Evidently, Europe’s domestically oriented firms are emerging as relative winners from the US tariffs. This makes sense because these firms don’t make negative contributions to the US trade deficit, and they are not exposed to the direct effects of US tariffs.

I believe that within a decade the number of funds will be 30-50% less than it is today , even if the money into the sector remains similar. This will kill the middle of the industry , bifurcating venture into massive scaled platforms who look more like offshoots of government-come-hedge funds, and a long tail of specialists who will capture all... See more

Maybe he’s right. But I think the more likely scenario will be nothing so grand as the end of civilization. We will not become barbarous, violent, or remotely exciting to each other or ourselves. No Gibbon will document the decline and fall of the mind, because there will be no outward event to observe. Leisure time will rise, home life will take... See more