vc

The Venture Arrogance Score: A simple formula to evaluate a VC firm's business modelWhat percent of "total annual startup value creation" does that fund need to capture in order to generate their desired return.You just need five numbers to calculate it...1) Fund Size and Investment Window (this is simple...just take the size of their last fund -- ... See more

Rule of 30. Assuming 10% ownership, simply take fund size and multiply it by 30 to derive what total exit value has to look like to achieve a 3x gross. $1b fund x 30 = $30B exit value. 10% of that is $3b which is the 3x gross. That means 1 decacorn and 20 🦄s or 2 decacorns and 10 🦄s. Quite a hit rate for a portfolio of 30-40 companies.

. The idea is to index where the opportunities are modest and to seek skill where they are abundant

Taking advantage of people who need to buy or sell for non -fundamental reasons

In plain language, it says that excess returns equal skill times opportunity. So, to make money, in poker or investing, you need skill but you also need opportunity.

At that point, an uncle pulled him aside and offered some advice: "Jim, I wouldn't spend my time getting better; I'd spend my time finding weaker games." In other words, instead of finding players who are as skilled as you are, you want to find players who are not as good as you are and who are rich. That way, you have a better chance of walking ou... See more

Externally, wisdom looks like as decisiveness without impulsivity—passing on perfect-on-paper deals because something feels misaligned, or backing technically flawed pitches because you sense exceptional founder adaptability. These aren't random emotional reactions but sophisticated processing systems integrating multiple streams: micro-expressions... See more

Let me emphasise that the problem in investing is not a lack of skill -it is the exact opposite, there's too much skill. But the discussion also places the emphasis -properly -on the distribution of skill. And that has gotten narr ower virtually everywhere we look