vc

What is really a business, then?

So: beware of people conflating pushing pennies around with actually doing the hard work of building a business. Beware of those who pretend that venture capital and the VCs who run that industry are the voices of entrepreneurship — or that they’re even on the side of entrepreneurs.

And beware of anyone who thinks... See more

Our thesis is that:

1. The best deep tech GPs will see better opportunities now than they did five years ago,


2. These opportunities will be missed by most outsider investors, and


3. Because of way tech risk is mitigated, the biggest bottleneck to allocation exists at seed

A GP fundamentally needs to do eight things:

• Source companies to invest in.


• Pick companies which outperform.


• Win access to those companies.


• Value a company well and enter at an appropriate valuation


• Construct a portfolio of these companies sized to maximise LP reward and minimise LP risk.


• King-make their portfolio companies.


• Raise capital for

... See more

I’ve long joked venture is finance for people who don’t understand how money works, and it really has felt like this for a while - with certain exceptions there has been minimal innovation on the 2% management fee, 20% carry model in the 25 years venture has been active in Europe. Perhaps little wonder when you consider the classic path of... See more

We try to be open minded on where to look, and have found robotics and life science to be fairly good ponds to fish in!

However, one needs to consider that these markets might have matured and are not as high-volatility environments they once were whereas early-stage companies instead thrive in market dislocation that creates high volatility and high chances of multiple right-tail outcomes.

Ours is a livelihood dependent on successfully being able to predict the future. And in a world so dominated by fat tails, randomness and optionality, this is a very hard thing to do.

Are we back to the good old days of actual contrarian thinking? When a16 invested in Airbnb, market analysis suggested the short-term rental market was too niche and regulatory barriers too high. Their willingness to override consensus analysis—precisely the kind that research agents excel at producing—led to one of venture capital's greatest... See more

Today, it’s quite different. The VC side has unbundled into all sorts of niche firms who act as signal for larger multi-stage GPs, and who partner at nearly every stage of technology risk level.