long-term thinking
musings on long-term thinking in a shortsighted world. we overestimate what we can do in a year, underestimate what we can do in 10 kinda thing.
Juan Orbea and
long-term thinking
sometimes people ask something like “do you think this could work?” and I sorta waffle around on it
but I realize my truer answer is something like: it’ll probably work IF *you* believe it will work and *you* commit to making it work for 7+ years
Visakan Veerasamyx.comThe fact is, star brands take time to grow. Take some of the small makeup companies we have acquired recently, like Bliss and Urban Decay. When we bought them, they were little start-ups run by their founders—very simple businesses, but with a lot of originality in the products. So now we know we must nurture them until they have some history. But
... See moreSuzy Wetlaufer • The Perfect Paradox of Star Brands: An Interview with Bernard Arnault of LVMH
As humans, we're evolutionarily wired to prioritize short-term gain. Hunter gatherers had no use for five-year plans, and those instincts are still within us. Combine that with our current economic system, ad-driven business models, and algorithmic social media platforms, all of which visibly reward cynical short-term games, and you've got the... See more
Rob Hardy • The Ungated Manifesto
It took 4.5 years and ~$1bn raised for OpenAI to launch GPT-3, which was their first PMF product.
That breaks every “rule” in the startup world, around mvp and being capital light pre-pmf.
Goes to show you that you have to define your own rules to get outsized success.
immadtwitter.comI also think a lot about the old, iconic structures around the world that have stood the test of time and, in many cases, where we aren’t quite sure of all the details of how they were constructed. Marvels like the Colosseum, Roman aqueducts, or the Great Wall. Incredible architectural feats that were, by necessity, built to last and built slowly –... See more
Mario Gabriele • Modern Meditations: Rebecca Kaden (Union Square Ventures)
That's another thing too, where I'm only interested in people that do things for a long period of time. There is a subset of people that can start a great business or be a great investor for two years, five years, 10 years. I'm interested in people that, you started the conversation saying about Edwin Land and Estee Lauder. Okay. Two obsessives.... See more