long-term thinking
musings on long-term thinking in a shortsighted world. we overestimate what we can do in a year, underestimate what we can do in 10 kinda thing.
Juan Orbea and
long-term thinking
Indeed the Oak tree King of Limbs, in Britain is over 1,000 years old. It has been growing quietly in place since before the Norman Conquest. The King doesn’t much care about one iPhone model to the next.
Millennia long scales of engagement with the world around us are almost unimaginable when contrasted with the 2 week long Agile sprints popular... See more
Millennia long scales of engagement with the world around us are almost unimaginable when contrasted with the 2 week long Agile sprints popular... See more
Rethink Priorities
rethinkpriorities.org
The fact is, star brands take time to grow. Take some of the small makeup companies we have acquired recently, like Bliss and Urban Decay. When we bought them, they were little start-ups run by their founders—very simple businesses, but with a lot of originality in the products. So now we know we must nurture them until they have some history. But
... See moreSuzy Wetlaufer • The Perfect Paradox of Star Brands: An Interview with Bernard Arnault of LVMH
Thousands of people will want to start a Substack or podcast. Something like 1% of them or less will stick with it consistently for 2+ years. If you commit to things for 10+ years, you develop what appear to be superpowers
Our ideal outcome as a company is not becoming the next Facebook (god forbid), it’s becoming the next Nishiyama Onsen Keiunkan, a hot spring hotel in Japan, and one of the world’s oldest businesses (founded in 705 AD).
“It takes at least six years for a photograph to start getting interesting again after the day it was taken. It’s the curve of photographic interestingness.” Noah Kalina
sometimes people ask something like “do you think this could work?” and I sorta waffle around on it
but I realize my truer answer is something like: it’ll probably work IF *you* believe it will work and *you* commit to making it work for 7+ years
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