implementation

Perhaps the most important confusion we want to clear up is that the level of risk premiums (called term premium in bond markets) has almost no predictive value for short, medium or even long term asset returns. The level doesn’t much matter at all for trading markets. What matters a great deal is drivers for changes in risk premium.

Said another

over $75,000 a year—big raises and annual bonuses won’t actually improve their productivity or performance. After that basic-needs line is crossed, employees want intrinsic rewards. They want to be in control of their own time (autonomy), they want to work on projects that interest them (curiosity/passion), and they want to work on projects that

The prompt is clear, explicit, and specific, and it will result in a far better advertisement.

But this was just the beginning. Many in the managerial class saw the success of social media and wondered how they could use gamification for their own ends. The Chinese Communist Party was among the first to apply the principles of social media to the real world. In several towns and cities, it began trialing social credit schemes that assign

Dual Components of Risk: o Bessent defines risk as a combination of two factors: ▪ Probability: The likelihood that an adverse event or outcome will occur.

▪ Severity: The magnitude of the potential loss or negative impact if the event occurs.

5. Explanations vs. predictions

The search for rules and essences, the obsession with process and sculpting, is ultimately a search for explanations . Explanations are the holy grail of the West—they are what we search for in science, business, and life. Consider the questions we tend to ask any successful person: “Can you explain how you got here?

The big point: Impossible is always a checklist. Do every item on your checklist today, do every item on your checklist tomorrow, and repeat. This is how clear goals become high, hard achievements, which become milestones on the way to massively transformative purposes.

This pattern repeats everywhere:

• Traditional path: Pay $50,000 for an MBA, then hope someone notices you.

• Attention path (shortcut): Create valuable insights for industry leaders, then get hired directly.

When you reframe every “how will I pay for this” problem as a “who can I serve” problem, you win. This is the Audience Shortcut:

• Instead of

Until we unlearn, what to Holmes is effortless couldn’t be more effortful to our Watson selves. We must stop Watson at every point and ask instead the opinion of Holmes. But as we practice this more and more, as we force ourselves to observe, to imagine, to deduce over and over and over—and to do it even in those circumstances where it may seem