Kaustubh Sule

Anatoly of Chinese surplus

Inflation Gold Energy EM Government Bonds

2. Algorithm and the Role of Bridging Agreement – How It Works: Rather than a simple majority rule or immediate publication, the tool uses a “bridging-based agreement algorithm” that evaluates notes based on whether people who typically disagree find them helpful. This anti- manipulation feature is designed to ensure the note is neutral and infor- mat

Top 5 Easy-to-Track Economic Indicators for Today's Economy 1. ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) • Released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management • Accessible via financial news sites, the ISM website, or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) • Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the services sector, which now dominates the

Recalibrating Traditional Indicators Some traditional indicators could be updated by: • Reweighting LEI components to reduce manufacturing emphasis • Incorporating digital transformation metrics into productivity calculations • Creating sector-specific sub-indices that acknowledge structural differences • Adding liquidity and fiscal policy impact a

Leading Economic Index (LEI) are outdated and less relevant in today’s economy. Decades ago, manufacturing made up 30% of GDP and 50% of employment—today, it is only 10% of GDP and 14% of jobs. This structural shift means that many recession indicators don’t capture the strength of the modern economy, which remains resilient due to fiscal stimulus

What are known market effects? Here’s a list:

Momentum - The tendency of assets that have performed well (poorly) in the recent past to continue performing well (poorly) in the near future

Trend - The tendency of asset prices to move in persistent directions over extended periods

Value - The tendency of relatively cheap assets to outperform relatively

Transition to QT Framework: QT is about reversing QE’s excesses and restoring balance-sheet normalcy.

QT 1.0 mostly let the portfolio “run off” (without reinvestment) but was muted by Treasury issuance patterns.

QT 2.0 takes a more active role—it seeks not only to shrink the balance sheet but also to alter its composition by favoring short-term reinv

The sources of alpha can be segmented into four key areas:

Information: The advantage of possessing data that others do not.

Processing: The capacity to interpret and analyze data more effectively than others.

Modeling: The ability to design superior mathematical models that reflect market patterns and behaviors.

Speed: The advantage of acting quicker