Kaustubh Sule
@kaustubh
Investment Manager, Amateur writer, fitness enthusiast
Kaustubh Sule
@kaustubh
Investment Manager, Amateur writer, fitness enthusiast
Anatoly of Chinese surplus
Inflation Gold Energy EM Government Bonds
modelthinking and
Top 5 Easy-to-Track Economic Indicators for Today's Economy 1. ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) • Released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management • Accessible via financial news sites, the ISM website, or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) • Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the services sector, which now dominates the
... See moreRecalibrating Traditional Indicators Some traditional indicators could be updated by: • Reweighting LEI components to reduce manufacturing emphasis • Incorporating digital transformation metrics into productivity calculations • Creating sector-specific sub-indices that acknowledge structural differences • Adding liquidity and fiscal policy impact a
... See moreLeading Economic Index (LEI) are outdated and less relevant in today’s economy. Decades ago, manufacturing made up 30% of GDP and 50% of employment—today, it is only 10% of GDP and 14% of jobs. This structural shift means that many recession indicators don’t capture the strength of the modern economy, which remains resilient due to fiscal stimulus
... See moreWhat are known market effects? Here’s a list:
Momentum - The tendency of assets that have performed well (poorly) in the recent past to continue performing well (poorly) in the near future
Trend - The tendency of asset prices to move in persistent directions over extended periods
Value - The tendency of relatively cheap assets to outperform relatively
Transition to QT Framework: QT is about reversing QE’s excesses and restoring balance-sheet normalcy.
QT 1.0 mostly let the portfolio “run off” (without reinvestment) but was muted by Treasury issuance patterns.
QT 2.0 takes a more active role—it seeks not only to shrink the balance sheet but also to alter its composition by favoring short-term reinv
The sources of alpha can be segmented into four key areas:
Information: The advantage of possessing data that others do not.
Processing: The capacity to interpret and analyze data more effectively than others.
Modeling: The ability to design superior mathematical models that reflect market patterns and behaviors.
Speed: The advantage of acting quicker