economics

• Economy: We know that the amount of money relative to output (total goods and services) is reflected in inflation. This is ALWAYS a relative relationship. There are no true price controls in any system, only a transfer of risk reflected in capital flows.

• Financial markets: We know that in modern financial markets with central banks and fractiona

So every single asset is directly linked with the incomes of consumers in the economy. At the end of the day, if someone truly needs cash to pay rent or buy food, they will sell their Bitcoin (or any asset they hold). When you have mass adoption of the asset, this is what happens.

Every asset ALWAYS functions in the context of macro constraints. Bitcoin has many people buying and selling it from many countries. Regardless of what popular narratives say, every single person has their Bitcoin cross-collateralized with something else. If a person is running a portfolio with leverage and begin to have a drawdown, they typically

Industrial profits rose 1.4% on a YTD basis compared to a year ago and 3% y/y compared to 2.6% y/y in March. This was stronger than markets expected and reflects higher earnings in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors. Private enterprises continued to outperform at 4.4% on a YTD basis, followed by foreign invested at 2.5% y/y and share

In absolute terms, total credit card spending has become large now. In absolute terms, the total spending through credit cards has almost tripled in the last 5 years. In FY25, the total spending through credit cards was over 6% of GDP or ₹21 trillion (US$250bn) in absolute terms. And almost 100% of the credit card payments are final household cons

We are coming towards the end of the 4Q results season and the results so far have been muted. In terms of revenue growth, 4QFY25 will likely be the 8th consecutive quarter of single-digit growth. Of the companies that have reported so far, revenue growth has totalled 7% YoY, down from ~8% in the preceding two quarters.

While many focus on our rising interest costs to service our rising debt amounts I dont much care. We pay our interest to our citizens. Our existing debt service costs are mostly just a small symptom of the theft. The big thing to worry about is our primary deficit. That has grown far faster than our interest cost. Each year our primary deficit lay

Right now, there are two important policy changes that have come out in 2025. The first is DOGE aimed at eliminating waste, fraud and abuse in the government. The second is tariffs aimed at making global trade more fair

Which matters more?

The chart today looks at each in terms of their size relative to the GDP of the US. The scales are different to

This dollar downtrend has been a bit different than other recent ones, because normally a strong dollar puts pressure on asset prices while a weak dollar helps support them, and this weak dollar period (which is relative; it’s still strong on a longer-term chart and on a purchasing power parity basis) has occurred alongside a sell-off in U.S. equit