economics

Demographic Shifts: Changes in population size, age structure, and labor force participation rates influence wage dynamics, productivity, and total output.

Long Historical Cycles: Where are we in a 20- or 30-year inflation cycle? Are we transitioning from a disinflationary era into an inflationary one?

• Structural Indicators: Have demographic trends changed substantially? Is globalization giving way to regionalization? Are commodity investment patterns and energy transitions setting the stage for pers

Breaking of Old Norms: After decades of disinflation, markets and policymakers developed a set of beliefs, tools, and expectations fitted to low and stable inflation. If a structural shift occurs, these old mental models no longer apply, making it harder to control or predict rising inflation.

o Behavioral and Market Sentiment Changes: As inflation

Resurgence of Trade Barriers and Industrial Policy: As the world moves away from hyper-globalization—whether due to tariffs, geopolitical tensions, or security-of-supply considerations—costs could rise. The restructuring of supply chains raises input costs and reduces the deflationary tailwinds that globalization once provided.

Potential Winners and Losers: In an inflationary environment: o Losers: Long-duration bonds, high-growth tech companies reliant on cheap capital, and heavily indebted entities vulnerable to rising interest rates.

o Winners: Real assets like commodities, infrastructure, and companies with pricing power or exposure to supply chain restructuring.

Finally, the sale of assets—such as selling cash, stocks, bonds, or real estate to finance spending—can also drive nominal spending. However, large-scale asset sales are usually indicative of a shortfall in economic activity and are typically used to essentially plug a hole in spending by economic actors rather than as a durable source of ongoing s

Nominal spending in the economy can originate from one of three sources: income, borrowing, or the sale of assets.

Commodities are goods used as inputs in the production of other goods and services. They form the bedrock upon which more complex products are made. While the US economy has moved to have a much larger share in the form of services, none of these services would be possible without the commodities. The pervasiveness of commodities as inputs makes co

We think it is essential to recognize that there should be little to no risk premium for holding spot commodities in a portfolio. This is because productivity continues to make commodities easier to produce and, in turn, cheaper. This is particularly true when there is a continuously expanding production capacity and supply of commodities over time

Thus, commodity prices tend to be dominated by demand forces over time, but when we approach capacity limits, supply forces can have extremely large impacts.