economics

While many focus on our rising interest costs to service our rising debt amounts I dont much care. We pay our interest to our citizens. Our existing debt service costs are mostly just a small symptom of the theft. The big thing to worry about is our primary deficit. That has grown far faster than our interest cost. Each year our primary deficit lay

Right now, there are two important policy changes that have come out in 2025. The first is DOGE aimed at eliminating waste, fraud and abuse in the government. The second is tariffs aimed at making global trade more fair

Which matters more?

The chart today looks at each in terms of their size relative to the GDP of the US. The scales are different to

This dollar downtrend has been a bit different than other recent ones, because normally a strong dollar puts pressure on asset prices while a weak dollar helps support them, and this weak dollar period (which is relative; it’s still strong on a longer-term chart and on a purchasing power parity basis) has occurred alongside a sell-off in U.S. equit

Data aggregates aside, a more serious question is to ask, if some entities are front-running the risk of tariffs by importing gold, what other things might they be doing this with that do affect the economy in a business operation sense?

Anatoly of Chinese surplus

Inflation Gold Energy EM Government Bonds

Top 5 Easy-to-Track Economic Indicators for Today's Economy 1. ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) • Released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management • Accessible via financial news sites, the ISM website, or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) • Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the services sector, which now dominates the

Recalibrating Traditional Indicators Some traditional indicators could be updated by: • Reweighting LEI components to reduce manufacturing emphasis • Incorporating digital transformation metrics into productivity calculations • Creating sector-specific sub-indices that acknowledge structural differences • Adding liquidity and fiscal policy impact a

Leading Economic Index (LEI) are outdated and less relevant in today’s economy. Decades ago, manufacturing made up 30% of GDP and 50% of employment—today, it is only 10% of GDP and 14% of jobs. This structural shift means that many recession indicators don’t capture the strength of the modern economy, which remains resilient due to fiscal stimulus