economics

Anatoly of Chinese surplus

Inflation Gold Energy EM Government Bonds

Top 5 Easy-to-Track Economic Indicators for Today's Economy 1. ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) • Released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management • Accessible via financial news sites, the ISM website, or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) • Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the services sector, which now dominates the

Recalibrating Traditional Indicators Some traditional indicators could be updated by: • Reweighting LEI components to reduce manufacturing emphasis • Incorporating digital transformation metrics into productivity calculations • Creating sector-specific sub-indices that acknowledge structural differences • Adding liquidity and fiscal policy impact a

Leading Economic Index (LEI) are outdated and less relevant in today’s economy. Decades ago, manufacturing made up 30% of GDP and 50% of employment—today, it is only 10% of GDP and 14% of jobs. This structural shift means that many recession indicators don’t capture the strength of the modern economy, which remains resilient due to fiscal stimulus

Transition to QT Framework: QT is about reversing QE’s excesses and restoring balance-sheet normalcy.

QT 1.0 mostly let the portfolio “run off” (without reinvestment) but was muted by Treasury issuance patterns.

QT 2.0 takes a more active role—it seeks not only to shrink the balance sheet but also to alter its composition by favoring short-term reinv

What happens next

The AI agent race won’t be decided by who has the smartest models. It’ll come down to who can get the most context in the interface that users are willing to switch to or already use.

I hate to say this, but the interface dynamic, once again, favors big tech. Because the previous paradigm in Silicon Valley rewarded applications like Meta and Google that aggregated attention, and those same aggregators are the ones that are heavily investing in AI agents now, it is going to be hard for startups to break through. Not impossible! B

36Kr: Developing LLMs might be an endless endeavor. Does the cost concern you?

Liang Wenfeng: Innovation is expensive and inefficient, sometimes accompanied by waste. That's why innovation only emerges after economic development reaches a certain level. In