economics
Imported tag from Readwise
economics
Economists, for all their stereotypes, have one superpower that data scientists could really use: they see the world in terms of trade-offs, incentives, and equilibrium. They don’t ask what is happening; they ask why it’s happening, and what would happen if something changed .
Data scientists, on the other hand, are often trained to predict. The
... See moreDima Diachkov • Why Every Data Scientist Should Think Like an Economist
Real private final consumption expenditure has been averaging at 3.5-4 per cent over the past five years despite the exuberant leveraged spending. And while the contraction in financial savings was seen as a sign of improving household confidence, it ironically accompanied a languid actual consumption, indicating faltering real incomes.
Indeed, the
... See moreDhananjay Sinha • Are Rates Stressful or Are We Barking Up the Wrong Tree?
Services trade fared better than merchandise trade, growing 15% in 2022. International travel continued to rebound strongly, rising 70% year-on-year after many regions lifted pandemic-related mobility restrictions.
Looking back through the entire pandemic period, computer services were the most dynamic sector in services trade, with global exports
... See moreWTO • World Trade Statistical Review 2023
The financial services sector globally intermediated about $400 trillion in assets and generated $6.8 trillion in revenue in 2022. Those are both records. They compare with about $375 trillion in assets and $6.4 trillion in revenue generated in 2021. Intermediation has been growing faster than the overall economy, with intermediation growth of
... See morereadwise.io • Emailing_global-Banking-Annual-Review-2023
In contrast, during the three decades prior to 2020 (pre-pandemic), Japan never ran a budget deficit larger than 8.3% of GDP. Their deficits were big and persistent, but gradual:
Lyn Alden • Economic Japanification: Not What You Think
Will India, with its growing population, have a GNI per capita growth higher than its population growth, indicating an improvement in quality of life?
Substack • Energy Consumption Per Capita – Part 2
The freedom of the part varies with the security of the whole; individualism will diminish in America and England as geographical protection ceases.
Will Durant • The Lessons of History
interesting thought whether this is applicable at the company level also. Security of a cash rich company means freedom at an employee level. more than cash rich it is about above average growth rate of the company which makes it secure and below average growth rate makes it insecure.
In 1973, the global system of fixed exchange rates, called the Bretton-Woods system, collapsed. The system had been launched in 1944 to prepare for rebuilding the world economy after the Second World War. At its core was a system of fixed exchange rates with the U.S. dollar as an anchor. The USD itself was tied to gold at a price of $35 per ounce
... See moreSubstack • Another BRIC in the Wall
The orange line could occur if a lot of private European and Japanese investors buy un-hedged Treasuries in a risk-off move, which would delay the need for increased U.S. debt monetization by the Federal Reserve. Either way, I expect down for the dollar in the multi-year long run, but the path to get there has these two main outcomes, in my view.
Th
... See moreLyn Alden • The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
If many private investors from Europe and Japan decide to buy U.S. government bonds without any protection against losses, it could slow down the need for the Federal Reserve to create more money to cover U.S. debt. In the long run, I believe the value of the dollar will go down, but there are two main ways this could happen.
To understand when and if the dollar might suddenly increase in value, we should pay attention to the Federal Reserve's financial situation and how much these foreign investors are buying. If they buy a lot of U.S. bonds, it could delay the Fed needing to create more money to handle the growing U.S. government debt. However, if not enough people want to buy these bonds to cover more than $1 trillion in yearly U.S. government spending, the Fed will have to step in and create a lot of money to fill that gap, which could add a lot of dollars into the economy for years to come.