economics

Here are some basic numbers to get things started:

• US 2025 GDP: $25 trillion (Source: Consensus forecasts and extrapolations from BEA data)

• Nvidia sales to datacenters (Q1 FY2026): **$39.1B (**Annualized: $156.4B)

• % of Nvidia datacenter sales that is AI related: ~99% (Primarily H100/GH200 sales to hyperscalers and enterprises)

• Nvidia share of

savings. Typically we associate rising interest rates with declining stock, real estate, and bond prices. If most of our wealth consists of these three kinds of assets, then higher interest rates should be associated with a decline in our wealth, and because we feel poorer, we reduce our consumption rate. This seems fairly plausible too. When we

The claim that there can be no employment impact in the United States of a contraction in Chinese trade could be conceivable only if all trade settled only on a bilateral basis.

But this doesn’t fully explain it since it also rains a lot in Ireland, for example, but nobody grows rice there. You need the heat found closer to the equator: Rice grows in hot, wet, flat, floodable areas, whereas wheat prefers cooler, drier, better drained areas.

speed truly is of the essence in the AI race—and few would deny that it is—natural gas is by far the best solution… Will natural gas be the bridging fuel that carries the AI boom along until a full nuclear renaissance can be realized? All the signs are there. At an exponential rate that would surely make Kurzweil smile, the molecule might flip

In our view, their intrinsic valuation is so uncertain that owning the shares is pure speculation.

When looking at U.S. markets, I think there’s a little bit from both of those areas that can be helpful. During periods of fiscal dominance, the general trends are that 1) governments often try to restrict the flow of capital in subtle or overt ways, 2) asset prices are often not as nominally bearish as you might expect since the denominator is

When you keep forecasting that simple, you free up time and bandwidth for other activities. I like studying the investing behaviors that never change, and I’d never have the time to do that if I spent my day predicting what the economy will do next quarter.

These trade deficits are self-reinforcing rather than planned. It’s not like the global reserve country necessarily decides to have persistent trade deficits. Using the United States as an example, if the whole world agrees or is forced to mainly use dollars to buy commodities and settle the majority of international deals, then there is naturally