economics

Economist Alex Field wrote that by 1941 the U.S. economy was producing 40 percent more output than it had in 1929, with virtually no increase in the total number of hours worked. Everyone simply became staggeringly more productive.

When most business cycle analysts address the economy’s overall performance, they focus on gross domestic product (GDP) and largely ignore aggregate profits. This is like assessing a firm’s health by looking at its sales but not at its bottom line. In fact, any comprehensive analysis of business cycle dynamics must consider aggregate profits. For

expanding the monetary base is very different than expanding the broad money supply. Many people think that QE alone is inflationary, but it’s not. At most, QE alone is anti-deflationary, or inflationary for asset prices in particular. On its own, QE doesn’t result in more money in peoples’ pockets chasing more goods, or higher commodity prices.

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Here are some basic numbers to get things started:

• US 2025 GDP: $25 trillion (Source: Consensus forecasts and extrapolations from BEA data)

• Nvidia sales to datacenters (Q1 FY2026): **$39.1B (**Annualized: $156.4B)

• % of Nvidia datacenter sales that is AI related: ~99% (Primarily H100/GH200 sales to hyperscalers and enterprises)

• Nvidia share of

Xi has made it clear that his top priority is to transform China into a self-reliant global superpower. He aims to be the leader who definitively leaves China’s “century of humiliation”—a reference to the long era of China’s perceived subservience to Western powers—behind. In this context, the government’s current GDP growth target of around five

Warnings came from sector rotations out of late expansion stocks into early contraction stocks.

Services trade fared better than merchandise trade, growing 15% in 2022. International travel continued to rebound strongly, rising 70% year-on-year after many regions lifted pandemic-related mobility restrictions.

Looking back through the entire pandemic period, computer services were the most dynamic sector in services trade, with global exports

But "sell work" is the wrong business model for capturing that opportunity. It sounds like a paradigm shift, but it's actually a regression to the services economics that software was invented to escape. The frontier AI companies already understand this. They sell subscriptions that give customers access to intelligence-on-tap and let the customer