economics

Spain and Ireland, whose real estate markets had even more pronounced upswings, ended up with excess housing stocks equivalent to roughly 15 times the average annual supply of the pre-boom period.

One basic metric I like to look at is nominal GDP growth relative to bond yields. Whenever nominal GDP growth is structurally higher than bond yields, investors are usually better off owning just about anything other than bonds on a multi-year timeframe. In contrast, when bond yields are higher than or similar to nominal GDP growth (yellow areas in

For example, in 2021, the China Development Bank created a special loan program for scientific and technological innovation and basic research. By May 2024, the bank had distributed more than $38 billion worth of loans to support critical, cutting-edge sectors, such as semiconductors, clean energy technology, biotech, and pharmaceuticals.

Here is some more context. The US had 82% cumulative broad money supply growth over the past decade. Egypt had 638% broad money supply growth during that same time period. And the Egyptian pound underperformed the dollar by approximately that ratio; a decade ago a US dollar was worth a bit under 8 Egyptian pounds, and today it’s worth a bit over 50

Power Sector (DISCOMs)

Electricity distribution companies, or DISCOMs, are a financial black hole for many states. Despite multiple reforms, DISCOM debt has grown by 8.7% annually since 2016-17. By 2022-23, accumulated losses hit ₹6.5 lakh crore—2.4% of GDP. Six states account for 75% of these losses. The Centre has offered states additional

TFP is long-term and thematic in nature. It is positively affected by new technology and negatively affected by overhangs which slow organic value creation such as burdens on business, commodity price inflation, or an overhang of debt.

Cost disease is the curse of highly advanced and developed economies. It is, in some sense, the price we pay for progress.

private loans will utilize existing resources and capital far better than government loans. Government loans will waste far more capital and resources than private loans. Government loans, in short, as compared with private loans, will reduce production, not increase it.

Or take Earth AI. What’s the Why Now for Earth AI?

When Roman started the company in 2017, machine learning had finally gotten good enough that it was possible to analyze huge amounts of data to identify mineral targets just as the amount of new discoveries using traditional methods plummeted. While the company’s drilling rigs don’t rely on