economics

The first and largest dollar spike occurred in the mid-1980’s. From the 1970’s and into the early 1980’s, the U.S. dollar encountered serious devaluation and inflation, so Fed Chairman Paul Volcker hiked interest rates up to the double digits to stabilize the dollar and force inflation back down. This, however, made the real interest rate on the

Wind power in the Lower 48 states produced about 335,753 megawatt hours (MWh) on July 22, the lowest since Oct. 4, 2021, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). When the wind did not blow, power companies usually burn more gas because it is the only big source of power they can turn to quickly to provide

Why the denomination of commodity pricing matters

The key to understanding the link between commodities and the US Dollar is the fact that most commodity producers have costs that are in their local currency, while all their revenues are in US Dollars, the currency in which most commodities are priced.

Option 1: The optimistic scenario

Technology continues to do what it has done for more than a century: create new jobs. Meanwhile, AI lowers the barrier to entry, more people can become knowledge workers, and knowledge work itself becomes democratized. The economic pie grows and everyone gets a bigger slice. As more people join the ranks, the

And they tend to approximately rotate together. Decades where American growth stocks do well and the dollar is strong tend to be the decades where value stocks, emerging market stocks, and gold/commodities collectively underperform. And then when an asset rotation occurs, American growth stocks (which at that point are quite expensive along with a

Rather it is to address directly the instability that is introduced through the mismatched capital structure.

I will distinguish between economic policy and the transmission of volatility, and I will argue that policy-making must be constructed in an environment in which excess volatility is kept to a minimum.

more (in P/E terms) for the business with high returns on equity and superior cash flow generation.

Historian Michael Howard has said that war and welfare go hand in hand. Perhaps that’s because even the most financially prepared, the most risk averse, and those with the most foresight can be completely crushed by war.