economics

When it comes to investment analysis, looking for relevant historical parallels (e.g., comparing the US real estate boom of the 2000s to the Japanese real estate market in the 1980s)

Hobson and Conant argued that the leading capitalist economies turned to imperialism primarily in order to export surplus savings and import foreign demand as a way of addressing the domestic savings imbalances.

Spain and Ireland, whose real estate markets had even more pronounced upswings, ended up with excess housing stocks equivalent to roughly 15 times the average annual supply of the pre-boom period.

Capital cycle analysis, however, focuses on supply rather than demand. Supply prospects are far less uncertain than demand, and thus easier to forecast.

The first two are systematically undervalued currencies and lagging wage growth relative to productivity growth. The third important factor, I argued, is financial repression.

terminal value computation is not what growth rate you use in the valuation, but what excess returns accompany that growth rate.

The Eurodollar market was the name given to the market surrounding the dollar accumulation in the banking system outside the United States during the “dollar glut” period of low U.S. interest rates in the 1960s.

According to the Fed’s most recent Z.1 Financial report for Third Quarter 2023, on 12/31/2022 U.S. balance sheets were contained $322 trillion in financial assets and $143 trillion in tangible assets . That makes total assets $452 trillion , about 18x the value of 2022’s $25 trillion GDP.