economics

As we perform analysis in this unusual economic environment, it pays to make sure we’re treating it with fresh eyes each time. By many metrics, ironically other than the traditional developed market metrics, we’ve a lready had a recession, and are arguably still in the later stages of it. But instead of showing up as a credit event and unemployment

the impact of the currency revaluation cannot be undermined by an expansion of credit at repressed interest rates,

e traditional mandate of the Finance Commission to allocate revenues across levels of government, but also to put in place and reinforce the structures, habits and building blocks to increase our adaptability as a nation, a Union of States, and a partner in a more sustainable global trajectory for human development.

At the very center of Minsky’s conception of what makes a financial structure robust or fragile is the relationship between the time pattern of cash commitments and the time pattern of expected cash flows. A firm with cash flows greater than cash commitments for every future period is said to be engaged in “hedge” finance, because the unit can meet

So now I want you to imagine what happens if the U.S. and its allies get in a major war with China — as analysts say is increasingly possible. In the first few weeks, much the two countries’ stores of munitions — including drones and the batteries that power drones — will be used up. After that, as in Ukraine, it will come down to who can produce

Building a skyscraper took all of the tools required to build a house, and many more besides: structural steel, safety elevators, fire-proofing, raft foundations, electricity, lightbulbs, plumbing, telephones, and ventilation systems. Each of those had its own history of technological development, and all came together to make skyscrapers possible.

Here we shall have to say simply that all government expenditures must eventually be paid out of the proceeds of taxation; that inflation itself is merely a form, and a particularly vicious form, of taxation.

When the Fed’s balance sheet rose sharply from 2008-2014 via QE, it didn’t necessarily translate into broad money supply going up because there was no direct mechanism to turn base money into broad money. However, in 2020, the combination of QE and large fiscal deficits (literally sending checks to people) did cause the broad money supply to go up

Compare this to prior capex frenzies , like railroads or telecom. Peak railroad spending came in 19th century, and peak telecom spending was around the 5G/fiber frenzy. It's not clear whether we're at peak yet or not, but ... we're up there. Capital expenditures on AI data centers is likely around 20% of the peak spending on railroads , as a