economics

In April, we returned to the theme in a piece titled “Generational Arbitrage.” As the name implies, a historic price disparity had broken out between the two fuels in North America. This was driven by global oil prices being held artificially high by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the fact that marginal oil

I use two measures here - the Bloomberg financial conditions index in blue, which takes the place of the GS measure that Bill Dudley built and took to the Fed, and the Chicago Fed national financial conditions index, inverted here, in green. Both measures suggest financial conditions are very easy, not just 2021 easy, but as easy as they have been

points to imbalances between production and consumption in the major economies as the primary source of monetary instability.

for a new secular cycle to get going, the pressures of the general population on resources and of the elites on commoners must be substantially reduced from their precrisis levels.

In the 19th Century, the British and Russia fought for dominance in Central Asia. One of the theaters of this fight was Iran, and Britain generally prevailed. It used this power to create a monopoly on Iranian oil, kept most of the profits, and supported friendly governments, like the 1921 Pahlavi coup d’état, a pro-Western military man. In 1941,

The introduction and then subsequent final expiration of these programs are an extremely underdiscussed element of the election results (though since I started working on this piece, some coverage has emerged). Yes, price increases, particularly those for food, energy and rental housing had a crucial- and continuing — impact on many households,

Techno-Industrials start with the challenge they want to solve, and use every tool at their disposal, including some at the cutting edge and even some that they have to create themselves, to solve that challenge.

but as a class they cannot save anything that is worth saving, above and beyond the amount that is made profitable by the increase of consumer buying.

A new technology appeared on the horizon but at an infant state: extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). The U.S. government thought this was going to be the key technology for microchip production, and the Department of Energy sponsored development of it in a working group with Intel, AMD, and Motorola. In 1999, a small Dutch company joined the