economics

In April, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that China’s overinvestment in steel, electric vehicles, and many other goods was threatening to cause “economic dislocation” around the globe. “China is now simply too large for the rest of the world to absorb this enormous capacity,” Yellen said.

Same with the Reagan revolution. Almost 80 percent of Americans had high trust in the government in 1964. Then the 1970s happened. Years of high inflation and high unemployment meant Americans were ready to listen to a politician who said the government was the cause of their problems, not the solution. The big takeaway here is that we really have

Emerging markets as we currently know them didn’t exist during the 1980’s dollar spike. The MSCI Emerging Market Index was created shortly afterward in 1987, and it was a small share of global GDP at the time. Developing countries of course existed during this dollar spike, but just weren’t significant players in the dollar market. So, this 1980’s

The ideal capital cycle opportunity for us has often been one in which a small number of large players evolve from a situation of excess competition and exert what is euphemistically called “pricing discipline.”

So every single asset is directly linked with the incomes of consumers in the economy. At the end of the day, if someone truly needs cash to pay rent or buy food, they will sell their Bitcoin (or any asset they hold). When you have mass adoption of the asset, this is what happens.

The timing of the bottom of the US Dollar may not be important when considering the long-term view. However, the absolute high in the US Dollar could be set at the time of the peak of the current Fed hiking episode, which will not be when the last interest rate hike is completed, but when US economic growth starts to turn downwards.

The increase in inflows will increase the demand for renminbi, so it will increase central bank intervention by exactly the same amount. If you look only at the central bank’s figures, its capital exports will actually rise, and this will seem to imply an increase in the trade surplus, but remember that the increase in capital exports by the

This was a direct challenge to a core thesis of the classical economists: “Savings are always beneficial because they allow greater accumulation of capital.

As you can see, new orders to inventory leads the ISM which in turn leads the SPX. The GDP lags badly & is somewhat disconnected. It has not predictive power but tells us good what happened a quarter ago when equity investors care what will happen going forward