economics

If China exports less capital, its trade surplus will decline. This is an arithmetical necessity.

They asked a basic question of their portfolio: If we can find many different arbitrage or relative value strategies that all look individually attractive, might they look even better when combined in a certain way?

With regards to the workings of the capital cycle, investors focus on current (and projected) future profitability but ignore changes in the industry’s asset base from which returns are generated.

Here's what’s happening in some European countries as I’m writing these lines (I’ve mentioned it briefly in last week’s posting Pushing on a String). Oil companies were assigned specific targets how much they have to reduce their carbon emissions annually. If they exceed their targets (i.e. reduce emissions by more than targeted), they receive a

More money is lost by people trying to prepare for recessions than in recessions. However, there are times to lean in with conviction and other times to remain flexible, and I view this as a time to remain flexible.

“They need to like you.”

Job openings (blue) remain elevated as the labor force participation rate (white) remains flat. When there is more demand (Jolts data in blue) vs the supply of labor (white), wages (YoY wages in green and Atlanta wage index in orange) express the supply and demand differential:

Hobson and Conant argued that the leading capitalist economies turned to imperialism primarily in order to export surplus savings and import foreign demand as a way of addressing the domestic savings imbalances.

In conventional discounted cash flow valuation models, we use higher discount rates on riskier cash flows and lower discount rates on safer cash flows.