economics

When volatility increases, the negative effect on the already low intrinsic value is less than the positive effect on time value. As volatility increases, consequently, equity value increases.

False Solutions

The larger problem, as we will see, is that when something “essential” like healthcare or childcare becomes difficult to afford, the knee-jerk reaction of the government is to subsidize it, either by redistributing taxpayer funds and/or borrowing those funds from the future. The problem is that these subsidies will increase the

Overall, the modern American economy is very different from the one of 1930. In fact, when it comes to trade, the two are almost opposites. The United States now has by far the largest trade deficit in history. That means Americans invest and (mainly) consume far more than they produce. U.S. consumption in the 1920s, in other words, was too low

Data aggregates aside, a more serious question is to ask, if some entities are front-running the risk of tariffs by importing gold, what other things might they be doing this with that do affect the economy in a business operation sense?

Once coal had reached dominance, it didn’t yield quickly to its successor, oil. Even though oil was available in sufficient quantities and processes to refine and use it were well known in the early 20th century, people stuck to coal which was the largest energy source, providing more than 50% of all energy used. It took oil until the 1960s to

Population Increase = 61.98%

GNI Per Capita Increase = 287.44%

As we can see, although India has experienced high population growth, its GNI per capita has increased at a faster rate. As a result, the quality of life in India has risen. This has given India more options for pursuing economic growth. As we discussed last week, energy = life, and

The main weakness of China isn’t the money or talent, but the ideological underpinning. The strategy of internal self-sufficiency for food, raw materials, energy, and now technology, coupled with a focus on exports to push other countries into dependency is essentially mercantilism, a 17th century doctrine which failed both practically and

US fiscal deficits will remain structurally large for the foreseeable future (i.e. for any investment time horizon of relevance, such as the next decade).

I outlined six reasons for this in my September 2024 newsletter, and they were the following:

1. Unbalanced Social Security


2. High healthcare costs


3. High defense spending


4. High interest expense


5. Political

But China’s growth is actually heavily capital intensive.