economics

Relative valuation can be done with less information and more quickly than intrinsic valuation and is more likely to reflect the market mood of the moment. Not surprisingly, most valuations that you see are relative.

The strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar is very important for global growth, including S&P 500 earnings growth. A stronger dollar generally impedes growth, while a weaker dollar boosts it.

Overcapacity in low-end production has plagued other Chinese tech industries, as well. The most recent example is artificial intelligence, which Beijing designated as a priority industry in its last two five-year plans. In August 2019, the government called for the creation of about 20 AI “pilot zones”—research parks that have a mandate to use

As you can see, new orders to inventory leads the ISM which in turn leads the SPX. The GDP lags badly & is somewhat disconnected. It has not predictive power but tells us good what happened a quarter ago when equity investors care what will happen going forward

For example, in 2021, the China Development Bank created a special loan program for scientific and technological innovation and basic research. By May 2024, the bank had distributed more than $38 billion worth of loans to support critical, cutting-edge sectors, such as semiconductors, clean energy technology, biotech, and pharmaceuticals.

Well, the joke’s on us. As it turns out, machines can do all of those things better, faster, or at the very least cheaper than humans can. The Pew Research Center, the Brookings Institution, and McKinsey and Company all forecast that the workers most likely to see “exposure” to generative AI are more educated and in higher-paid fields such as

From the early 1980s through the 2000s, interest rates were high and steadily heading down, which meant bond prices were steadily going up while also paying their holders a hefty income along the way. And quite usefully, their price action tended to be inversely correlated with equities; bond prices normally went up in recessions while stocks went

Economic growth can broadly be broken down into 3 components: increase in working population, increase in the capital stock, and TFP (total factor productivity).

a vast, middle-of-the-road array of mid-priced goods and services—is no longer competitive. No question, the constant disappointments, the repeated predictions of a turnaround that never seems to come, have reduced the credibility of Sears’ management in both the financial and merchandising communities.