economics

Based on BIS data, in 2000 during the second dollar spike, non-bank government and commercial borrowers outside of the United States had a little over $2.3 trillion in dollar-denominated debts. By way of comparison, U.S. GDP was $10.1 trillion, and U.S. broad money supply was $4.6 trillion. So, ex-USA dollar-denominated debts were 23% of U.S. GDP,

First, the world can embark on a surge in productive investment, probably but not necessarily directed by the state because the private sector might not be in a position to capture the full benefits of investment and so will not have the incentive to invest. Second, we must reduce the income share of the state and of the rich. Or third, we must

That is a major omission! If the slowdown in TFP growth can be explained by ideas getting harder to find, why did growth hit a brick wall in 1973 as opposed to slowly decaying as soon as ideas became harder to find?

Well, one question to ask might be “Which factors contributed to TFP growth in the last good decades, the 1950s and 1960s, and when

We cannot distribute more wealth than is created. We cannot in the long run pay labor as a whole more than it produces.

The grandiosity of the scheme is reminiscent of another failed European megaproject, Desertec. The intuition behind Desertec was to generate PV energy in the Sahara Desert and transport it to Europe. Desertec was set up by a network of politicians, scientists, and economists which itself was founded by the Club of Rome, of all organizations. It was

In addition, the US greatly restricts the supply of physicians by requiring that they undertake at least eight years of expensive post-secondary education and then an additional three to seven years of training in residency; in Europe, a medical degree can be obtained in six years. Furthermore, because of these stringent, perhaps overzealous,

And they tend to approximately rotate together. Decades where American growth stocks do well and the dollar is strong tend to be the decades where value stocks, emerging market stocks, and gold/commodities collectively underperform. And then when an asset rotation occurs, American growth stocks (which at that point are quite expensive along with a

I should add here that this model does not tell us where the increase in unemployment must occur, but history tells us much of what we need to know. In the early stages of the adjustment, unemployment usually occurs in the countries that saw the fastest increase in debt, typically the countries with excessively low savings. But as these countries