economics

Unlike most developed countries, the United States government is heavily reliant on foreigners lending it money by buying its Treasuries. Foreigners currently hold $6.7 trillion in U.S. government debt.

However, from the start of 2015, due in part to the strong dollar environment, foreigners have been buying very little U.S. government debt compared

For this relative valuation, I use the Yardeni Model, which is a variation of the Fed model. The latter compares equities and Treasuries. The Yardeni Model compares equity and credit or the two beta markets that allocators may choose between. It uses the S&P 500 earnings yields and the Moody’s Baa corporate rate.

However, Trump plans to set up a presidential advisory committee called the Department of Government Efficiency to address that. It’s not going to be an actual department since that requires an act of Congress, but rather it’ll be an advisory group led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. The stated goals are to streamline the government, improve

Capex spending for AI contributed more to growth in the U.S. economy in the past two quarters than all of consumer spending , says Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, citing data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. [emphasis mine]

This is an excerpt from our latest Month In Macro report that was shared with all of our Bespoke and Research Suite Subscribers. Below we explain the primary drivers of total returns of a Treasury security (policy rates, policy rate expectations & term premia) and isolate the drivers of excess returns (policy rate expectations). Consequently, a

Inflation Gold Energy EM Government Bonds

The grandiosity of the scheme is reminiscent of another failed European megaproject, Desertec. The intuition behind Desertec was to generate PV energy in the Sahara Desert and transport it to Europe. Desertec was set up by a network of politicians, scientists, and economists which itself was founded by the Club of Rome, of all organizations. It was

In absolute terms, total credit card spending has become large now. In absolute terms, the total spending through credit cards has almost tripled in the last 5 years. In FY25, the total spending through credit cards was over 6% of GDP or ₹21 trillion (US$250bn) in absolute terms. And almost 100% of the credit card payments are final household

1990’s-2000’s Dollar Spike

During the 1990’s, several emerging markets began to grow substantially, and began taking on dollar-denominated debt while the dollar was comparatively weak.

Meanwhile, the United States enjoyed prosperity from the Baby Boomer demographic bulge in prime working age combined with the dotcom boom and its associated new