The Congressional Budget Office has released new demographic projections, and they're alarming.
Fertility is so low that U.S. population growth is predicted to be entirely due to immigration by the early-2030s. https://t.co/58BoXjNCrW
The Congressional Budget Office has released new demographic projections, and they're alarming. Fertility is so low that U.S. population growth is predicted to be entirely due to immigration by the early-2030s. https://t.co/58BoXjNCrW
Our time horizons too are contracting. Young Americans are deferring or canceling their aspirations. Over the last decade, we have witnessed a declining birth rate and falling home ownership among young adults—and fewer business start-ups either by or for young adults.
Neil Howe • The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
Births in U.S. Drop to Levels Not Seen Since 1979
wsj.com
As a result, food prices increase, real wages decline, and per capita consumption, especially among the poorer strata, drops. Economic distress leads to lower reproduction and higher mortality rates, resulting in a slower population growth.
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
For most of the 2020s, the driving economic force will be low growth in productivity, decreased opportunities for investment of accumulated capital, and low interest rates. It will also be a period of increasing unemployment, driven by continued decline in industry and stagnation in high tech as the result of the maturation of the core technology.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's discord, the coming crisis of the 2020s, and the triumph beyond
La forte augmentation de la population aura lieu non pas parce qu’il y aura plus d’enfants. Ni, dans l’ensemble, parce que les vieux vivent plus longtemps. En fait, les experts de l’ONU prévoient qu’en 2100, l’espérance de vie mondiale aura augmenté de onze ans, ce qui ajoutera 1 milliard de personnes âgées au total, et fera 11 milliards de personn
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