The Congressional Budget Office has released new demographic projections, and they're alarming.
Fertility is so low that U.S. population growth is predicted to be entirely due to immigration by the early-2030s. https://t.co/58BoXjNCrW
The Congressional Budget Office has released new demographic projections, and they're alarming. Fertility is so low that U.S. population growth is predicted to be entirely due to immigration by the early-2030s. https://t.co/58BoXjNCrW
Declining Labor Force Participation
Martin Ford • Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
As Figure 6.4 from the report shows, in the United States and Europe, older voters will be the majority of voters in 2020. Politically, governments have very little time to make adjustments to retirement and medical benefits.
Jonathan Tepper • Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything
The core problem of the next sociopolitical cycle will be demographic. I pointed this out in The Next 100 Years when I wrote that one of the central problems was the decline in birth rates and the extension of life expectancy.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
Its U.S. total rose more than fivefold during the two pre-WWI generations, but the country’s rapid population growth, from about 36 million people in 1865 to just more than 97 million in 1913, reduced this to less than a twofold (1.8 times) increase in per capita terms, a rise that prorates to annual growth of merely 1.2%.
Vaclav Smil • Creating the Twentieth Century: Technical Innovations of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact (Technical Revolutions and Their Lasting Impact)
life expectancy alone is not enough. There has to be a suppression of degenerative diseases that currently turn the older cohort into massive consumers of resources rather than producers. Diseases that kill quickly are economically sustainable. Keeping people alive who can’t produce is economically debilitating.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
La forte augmentation de la population aura lieu non pas parce qu’il y aura plus d’enfants. Ni, dans l’ensemble, parce que les vieux vivent plus longtemps. En fait, les experts de l’ONU prévoient qu’en 2100, l’espérance de vie mondiale aura augmenté de onze ans, ce qui ajoutera 1 milliard de personnes âgées au total, et fera 11 milliards de personn
... See moreHans Rosling • Factfulness (Essais) (French Edition)
In 2026, China’s population should start to decline. It may be the first country to grow old before it grows rich.