Sublime

The systems viewpoint is generally oriented toward the long-term view. That’s why delays and feedback loops are so important. In the short term, you can often ignore them; they’re inconsequential. They only come back to haunt you in the long term.

But families attempting to overcome the “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” proverb should define short-term as twenty years, or one generation; intermediate as fifty years, or two generations; and long-term as one hundred years, or three generations. This difference of view profoundly affects the nature of the assets and liabilitie

Long-term predicting is the forecast of everything 90 days and beyond. To do so, your leadership team has to know where the organization is going and how you expect to get there. You do this by starting with the far future and working your way back. What is your 10-year target? What is your three-year picture? Your one-year plan? What do you have t

It's easy to start debates about appropriate time horizons for calculating earnings growth. Five years worked for us. We were always poised to react to events that occurred in a shorter time frame, but, ultimately, long-term financial results drove Windsor's long-term investment performance.

The need to frame problems within radically large, spatio-temporal contexts that include the past (how the problem evolved over long periods of time), present (how the problem manifests at different levels of scale) and future (visions of the long-term future in which the problem has been resolved).

The n

However, we can confidently claim that it is more than 2 minutes and less than 3 hours (or 200 minutes).*

The Best Plan Is to Prepare for Perpetual Change Change velocity principles dictate that trying to plan for anything beyond three years is an exercise in futility. Have a vision for the long-term, but make infrastructure decisions based on current and short-term realities.

In some industries and companies it is typical to calculate four- or five-year customer values instead of using the infinite time horizon inherent in the previous formulas.