Sublime

A key aspect of thinking quantitatively is understanding the laws of probability and randomness.

Therefore, the probability of seeing this specific result—10 missed shots—given that he can supposedly make 50% of his shots, is 1 in 1,000. This probability, 1 in 1,000 or 0.001, is called a p-value

Bayes’s much more famous work, “An Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances,”24 was not published until after his death, when it was brought to the Royal Society’s attention in 1763 by a friend of his named Richard Price. It concerned how we formulate probabilistic beliefs about the world when we encounter new data.

there can (and should) be short-term streaks that significantly skew the conversion rates in low data situations. Remember, the laws of probability only guarantee the accuracy and stability of results for very large sample sizes. For smaller sample sizes, a lot of fuzz and uncertainty remain.

Hypotheses typically estimate a given distribution parameter such as the mean or median. This is then used to build a histogram

there's variation in all things; variation creates uncertainty; and probability and statistics are tools to help us manage uncertainty.

With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is apt to happen,” Mosteller said.

How? Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. Mother natu