Sublime
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Laplace continued his research throughout France’s political upheavals. In 1810 he announced the central limit theorem, one of the great scientific and statistical discoveries of all time. It asserts that, with some exceptions, any average of a large number of similar terms will have a normal, bell-shaped distribution.
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne • The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
(Updated odds of D) = (likelihood ratio) × (prior odds of D).
Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie • The Book of Why
Probability
Matt Mower • 1 card
Machine Learning
Matt Mower • 1 card
For the sake of example, let's say your cutoff was at 5 missed shots. If the intern had only missed 4 in a row, which has probability 50%4 = 6.25%, or 1-in-16, you could have given him the benefit of the doubt. But once he missed 5 shots, there was too much evidence to the contrary he was a good shooter. That cutoff, 5 missed shots in a row,
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