Sublime

New Yorker financial columnist James Surowiecki, who points out that aggregating the opinions of multiple people often yields an accurate analysis of a challenging situation—even if none of the people is an “expert.” In one example, a missing submarine is found in the

the behavior of online users is surprisingly difficult to predict because it involves a confluence of disciplines, including, but not limited to, psychology, sociology, and economics.

first decision mistake: using experts instead of mathematical models.

Making the Invisible Visible

For example, imagine that you offer a $100 prize to a college class for the student with the best estimate of the number of pennies in a jar. The wisdom of the group can be found simply by calculating their average estimate. It’s been shown repeatedly that this average estimate is very likely to be closer to the truth than any of the individual est

The authors of the study conclude that the most effective form of training would be delivered on a “just in time” basis—that is, in anticipation of a pending decision.

improve decisions about where to eat or what to listen to. It also provides fundamental insights into how our goals should change as we age, and why the most rational course of action isn’t always trying to choose the best.

Knowing who your “good” customers are—the ones who will buy more—may be nice to know, but it takes second place.

General Cognitive Ability.