Sublime

PART I The Measurement Solution Exists

The point is that underlying technologies change, but, after a point, technology market shares don’t change and so they’re highly predictable.

We know now that the future is inherently unpredictable because not all variables can be known and even the smallest error imaginable in our data very quickly throws off our predictions. The best we can do is estimate the future by generating realistic, useful probabilities.

In this book, I’ll discuss the danger of “unknown unknowns”—the risks that we are not even aware of. Perhaps the only greater threat is the risks we think we have a handle on, but don’t.* In these cases we not only fool ourselves, but our false confidence may be contagious.

There is no Newtonian law of markets; they are all ephemeral relationships in a sea of noise and the only way you can do that and capture non-linearity and complexity is with a system that is rich enough to be able to contain all the models, so a universal approximator—that’s what neural nets are—and allows you to do that.

“What gets measured gets managed.” –Peter Drucker Considered “the founder of modern management,” author of The Effective

You want problems solved by the right people who can do it most effectively.