Sublime

Humans have limited time and brainpower. As a result, they use simple rules of thumb—heuristics—to help them make judgments. An

This choice is easy! Option BC actually dominates option AD (the technical term for one option being unequivocally better than another). You already know what comes next. The dominant option in BC is the combination of the two rejected options in the first pair of decision problems, the one that only 3% of respondents favored in our original study.

The general tendency to overestimate

or losses

To derive the most useful information from multiple sources of evidence, you should always try to make these sources independent of each other.

The process was mental work: deliberate, effortful, and orderly—a prototype of slow thinking.

winning, but there is general agreement that the psychological value of the prospect does not double. The large impact of 0 5% illustrates the possibility effect, which causes highly unlikely outcomes to be weighted disproportionately more than they “deserve.