Steven

Key Points:

• AI intelligence scales with log of resources (compute, data, inference)

• Cost of AI drops 10x every 12 months (vs Moore's Law 2x/18mo)

• Value of increasing AI intelligence is super-exponential

What This Means for 2025+:

• AI agents will become like virtual coworkers

• Software engineering will be first major field disrupted

• Impact will be uneven across industries

• Scientific progress will accelerate dramatically

• Most goods will get cheaper, luxury goods/land will get more expensive

Economic Implications:

• More like transistors than tech companies - gains widely distributed

• Could disrupt capital/labor balance

• Everyone might get "compute budgets" to access AI

• Cost of intelligence will keep dropping dramatically

• Value shifts to agency, willfulness, and determination

Predictions:

• By 2035, one person will have access to intellectual capacity of entire 2025 workforce

• Daily life won't change much short-term, but long-term changes will be massive

• Individual impact potential increases rather than decreases

• New forms of work will emerge, very different from today's jobs

• AI will be integrated into everything - "smart" becomes the default

Key Risks:

• Need to balance safety with individual empowerment

• Must prevent authoritarian control through AI surveillance

• Benefits need to be broadly distributed

• Capital/labor balance could "get messed up"

"Everyone should have access to unlimited genius"