ai
the future is now.
ai
the future is now.
Key Points:
AI intelligence scales with log of resources (compute, data, inference)
Cost of AI drops 10x every 12 months (vs Moore's Law 2x/18mo)
Value of increasing AI intelligence is super-exponential
What This Means for 2025+:
AI agents will become like virtual coworkers
Software engineering will be first major field disrupted
Impact will be uneven across industries
Scientific progress will accelerate dramatically
Most goods will get cheaper, luxury goods/land will get more expensive
Economic Implications:
More like transistors than tech companies - gains widely distributed
Could disrupt capital/labor balance
Everyone might get "compute budgets" to access AI
Cost of intelligence will keep dropping dramatically
Value shifts to agency, willfulness, and determination
Predictions:
By 2035, one person will have access to intellectual capacity of entire 2025 workforce
Daily life won't change much short-term, but long-term changes will be massive
Individual impact potential increases rather than decreases
New forms of work will emerge, very different from today's jobs
AI will be integrated into everything - "smart" becomes the default
Key Risks:
Need to balance safety with individual empowerment
Must prevent authoritarian control through AI surveillance
Benefits need to be broadly distributed
Capital/labor balance could "get messed up"
"Everyone should have access to unlimited genius"