Ishan
@ishan
Ishan
When it comes to business and careers, the more interesting people will succeed and capture more upside than ever before.
Because the uninteresting ones will get commoditized (hello 🤖).
And by interesting I mean being capable of analyzing, deciding, and executing in a way few others can.
Generating more unique ideas, understanding complex things fast
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But more recently, prediction markets have developed an odd sort of problem. There seems to be a feedback mechanism now whereby the betting-market odds reify themselves.
What do we mean by that? In the case of Brexit, it goes like this: Different surveys give different results, and we all know not to trust the polls, which have notoriously failed in... See more
What do we mean by that? In the case of Brexit, it goes like this: Different surveys give different results, and we all know not to trust the polls, which have notoriously failed in... See more
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
People don’t feed information back in the system since they assume that is the outcome. The direction is wrong. Not using own data to predict and then buying based on that (which feeds the system). Instead assuming that is the right odds and not changing it
And how do you apply it to the services and apps we design? The Browser Company has written that software can optimize for emotional needs rather than just functional needs. Jason Yuan has promoted the idea of “fidgetability” where, similar to a key fob or lighter, digital actions can be designed to feel satisfying. Rahul Vohra has talked about mak... See more
Andy Works • The World's Most Satisfying Checkbox | !Boring Software
As researchers in political science and as economists, we see three enticing advantages of forecasts from prediction markets, compared with poll-based forecasts of election outcomes: 1) Markets have full coverage of outcomes. They covered all primaries and caucuses in 2016, when polls covered about 50 percent of possible contests. Similarly, for Br... See more
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
