TOC in complexity

A rather better framing, in my view, is assessing degrees of uncertainty .

Toby Lowe underscored that ‘your work is a small part of a much larger web of entangled and interdependent activity and social forces.’

We know that in complex systems many factors combine to produce outcomes. Though not all factors are necessarily equally important .

guide by Hivos, whilst on the one hand promoting an approach to ToCs grounded in a recognition that “social change processes are complex and characterized by non-linear feedback loops: our own actions interact with those of others and a myriad of influencing factors”, also concede that “in practice, the ToC visualization often presents a diagram or... See more

Morell argues that it’s worth signalling the strength of relationships through thicker or thinner lines in diagrams.

Our influence is limited , and many other actors play an important role in achieving any significant outcomes

Cartwright’s work emphasises moderating factors: “support factors” and “derailers.” The presence or absence of these factors by no means guarantees success or failure, but they help us to think more seriously about what factors may need to be in place (or absent) in a particular context for a programme to make a difference (see Davey et al. 2018;... See more

the most important pitfalls are the following:

(1) Neglecting context and related blind spots;

(2) Over-confidence in “our” influence;

(3) Fallacy of unidirectionality;

(4) Misplaced beliefs about stability and certainty;

(5) Failure to adapt, and capture emergence.

Alternatively, Dave Snowden recommends a vector theory of change. In this, you forget about long-term goals entirely. You start from where you are and map the system’s current dispositional state, identify a desired direction of travel, but not a final destination . If you have a broad outcome area, or options for different possible outcomes you... See more