TOC in complexity

guide by Hivos, whilst on the one hand promoting an approach to ToCs grounded in a recognition that “social change processes are complex and characterized by non-linear feedback loops: our own actions interact with those of others and a myriad of influencing factors”, also concede that “in practice, the ToC visualization often presents a diagram or... See more

Cartwright’s work emphasises moderating factors: “support factors” and “derailers.” The presence or absence of these factors by no means guarantees success or failure, but they help us to think more seriously about what factors may need to be in place (or absent) in a particular context for a programme to make a difference (see Davey et al. 2018; M... See more

In Causal-Link Monitoring, Heather Britt and Richard Hummelbrunner focus on how likely critical assumptions are to fail (i.e., how vulnerable they are).

the most important pitfalls are the following:

(1) Neglecting context and related blind spots;

(2) Over-confidence in “our” influence;

(3) Fallacy of unidirectionality;

(4) Misplaced beliefs about stability and certainty;

(5) Failure to adapt, and capture emergence.

Toby Lowe underscored that ‘your work is a small part of a much larger web of entangled and interdependent activity and social forces.’

The problem is that too few people actually revise their theories of change in practice.

Systemic Insight recognises that we cannot predict the future in a complex adaptive system. Rather than developing a detailed ideal future and plan how to get there, Systemic Insight concentrates on changing the evolutionary path of the system through managing the present