TOC in complexity

Systemic Insight recognises that we cannot predict the future in a complex adaptive system. Rather than developing a detailed ideal future and plan how to get there, Systemic Insight concentrates on changing the evolutionary path of the system through managing the present

a disconnect that has emerged between the way that we think about social change and theories of change and the ways in which we visualize these change processes and our involvement in them through the diagrams we create as part of a theory of change process.

guide by Hivos, whilst on the one hand promoting an approach to ToCs grounded in a recognition that “social change processes are complex and characterized by non-linear feedback loops: our own actions interact with those of others and a myriad of influencing factors”, also concede that “in practice, the ToC visualization often presents a diagram or... See more

The problem is that too few people actually revise their theories of change in practice.

Alternatively, Dave Snowden recommends a vector theory of change. In this, you forget about long-term goals entirely. You start from where you are and map the system’s current dispositional state, identify a desired direction of travel, but not a final destination . If you have a broad outcome area, or options for different possible outcomes you do... See more

Morell argues that it’s worth signalling the strength of relationships through thicker or thinner lines in diagrams.

We know that in complex systems many factors combine to produce outcomes. Though not all factors are necessarily equally important .

Cartwright’s work emphasises moderating factors: “support factors” and “derailers.” The presence or absence of these factors by no means guarantees success or failure, but they help us to think more seriously about what factors may need to be in place (or absent) in a particular context for a programme to make a difference (see Davey et al. 2018; M... See more