Strategy for VUCA

Summary.

Naturally, these three ideas — uncertainty ability, the experimental organization, and strategy as creation — are just a sampling of the approaches we see emerging as complements to strategy in more stable markets. Uncertainty science doesn’t invalidate the prior strategic frameworks, but it does draw a boundary line, arguing that if you want to cr... See more

Allostasis is also more accurate because the truth is you almost never get back to where you were — and when you try you often end up suffering. And while allostasis is becoming the predominant model for thinking about change in the research community, it hasn’t really been applied to laypeople with our everyday concerns. I think it should be, beca... See more

As we enter an age of uncertainty, firms are desperately searching for the tools to keep pace.

Recognizing that strategy is a creative exercise

I think of the strategy frameworks for more stable environments as castle-building (e.g., Michael Porter’s five forces framework) or chess (e.g., the resource-based view proposed by Jay Barney); that’s in contrast to strategy in dynamic environments, which is more like surfing, where you try to be ag... See more

The individual’s ability to cope with uncertainty

Organizations are created, powered, and led by people. To lead organizations well, we train people in disciplines such as marketing, finance, and leadership. But uncertainty presents a special challenge since few of us have received training in how to deal with it. As a result, although we may call ... See more

The organization’s ability to experiment

The problem is that most of our existing frameworks, developed during a more stable era, don’t work as well in dynamic conditions. This isn’t to say the old frameworks and the tools that went with them are completely irrelevant. There will always be a need to understand industry structure or to use your resources to create new advantages, but when ... See more

Either way, the upshot of the expectations research, for me, anyway, is during a period of change, be it big or small, I need to constantly be asking myself if I’ve updated my expectations to match reality, or if I am clinging to old expectations.