Strategic Foresight

You can’t problem-solve your way into the future – problem-solving works on what is happening today by applying what has worked in the past.

The point is not to “pick one preferred future,” and hope for it to come to pass (or, even, work to create it—though there are some situations where acting to create a better future is a useful function of scenarios). Nor is the point to find the most probable future and adapt to it or “bet the company” on it. Rather, the point is to make strategic

If Strategic Foresight is to be effective and successful, you must increase your self-awareness, for which you need to reflect and gain insight on how you got to where you are.

Simple or tame problems are clear – they have a solution which may be difficult to find, but it exists. Complicated problems are those with many variables which potentially have more than one right answer, but technically and with enough computing power, you could probably solve these too.

The order in which the parts are assembled or arranged affects the system’s performance (if parts aren’t connected properly to the motherboard, the system won’t work)

Recognising systems allows you to look for patterns in their interactions.

A system has a purpose, even if it is changing and emerging or you can’t see what it is (or it isn’t a system)

Messes are exacerbated by complexity. Complexity tends to encourage fragmented thinking (which isn’t a good thing if you want to manage a mess) by making it more difficult to get to a shared, agreed understanding of a mess.

When you use Strategic Foresight you are turning the tables by looking to the future, identifying what is possible and, most importantly, what you can influence, which puts you in a position of ability (you are ABLE to do something about a given situation).