Strategic Foresight

The point is not to “pick one preferred future,” and hope for it to come to pass (or, even, work to create it—though there are some situations where acting to create a better future is a useful function of scenarios). Nor is the point to find the most probable future and adapt to it or “bet the company” on it. Rather, the point is to make strategic

Snowden differentiates between complex contexts where cause and effect are difficult to see and perhaps can only be seen in retrospect and chaotic contexts where cause and effect are constantly shifting.

The future is totally unknown – so some preparation is needed before you start the journey. For this journey to potential futures (as with most journeys to new places you don’t know yet), you need to expect the unexpected – which can be difficult.

Patterns are what you might notice if you look at all the events together.

The reason that you develop a strategy is to make sure that you/your business remains continuously relevant to the unfolding future so that you can flourish and endure not just today but also tomorrow. You need to navigate the ship of yourself (or your organisation) over time and into the future as that future unfolds and becomes the present.

A system is any group of interacting, interrelated or inter-dependent parts that form a complex and unified whole which has a specific purpose. Interdependency of parts put together for a purpose is key here

The order in which the parts are assembled or arranged affects the system’s performance (if parts aren’t connected properly to the motherboard, the system won’t work)

To learn to use Strategic Foresight, you will need to re-educate yourself; you will need to change what you pay attention to, how you perceive things and how you make sense of what you see.