modelthinking

The notion that a channel has a specific information capacity, which can be measured in bits per second, has had a profound influence.

In this world, there is an abundance of products, and every industry becomes far more competitive.

How can a startup survive in this environment? The answer is deceptively simple: Have good taste.

6. Mixing Perception & Truth

When I was trying to decide to go from being a Product Lead at Facebook to Head of Growth at Instagram, I received a lot of feedback from really smart people that it was a bad move. At the time, there was an outside perception that the Instagram team didn't care about growth. So those outsiders were giving me feedback based

If you learn first how to be selective accurately, in order to accomplish precisely what it is you want to accomplish, you will be able to limit the damage that System Watson can do by preemptively teaching it to not muck it up. The important thing is the proper, selective training—the presence of mind—coupled with the desire and the motivation to

Steps would be the following:

1. Start with a Central Idea:

   
   
   

   • Begin your mind map with a core concept, like a company name or an industry.




2. Branch Out Naturally:

   
   
   

   • From this center, draw main branches for major categories (e.g., business, competitive advantage, etc.).

   
   
   

   • Each branch can then split into sub-branches.




3. Use Keywords and Images:

   
   
   

   • Replace

formulas that assign equal weights to all the predictors are often superior, because they are not affected by accidents of sampling.

Stress focuses your attention in ways that good times can’t.

Guessing at the contents of a person’s attic from his outward appearance becomes one of Sherlock’s surest ways of determining who that person is and what he is capable of.

The fans not only overestimated the probability of the events they focused on—they were also much too willing to bet on them.