modelthinking

If they are attempting to be logical, the first person will try to justify what they’re saying by constructing a logical argument to back it up. The second person should then either try to find a flaw in their logical argument, or try to construct their own logical argument to back up their assertion that the person is wrong.

In other words, capital cycle analysis was all about the drivers of mean reversion.

• Instructions / System Prompt: An initial set of instructions that define the behavior of the model during a conversation, can/should include examples, rules ….

• User Prompt: Immediate task or question from the user.

• State / History (short-term Memory): The current conversation, including user and model responses that have led to this moment.

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Volatility itself was an extremely important variable, and to ignore it invalidated much of the analysis.

Now we get to the second part of the law: Business models need distribution. Without the ability to reach an audience, a business model cannot unlock demand and therefore fizzles out. There’s survivorship bias here; the only content that we know about and can pay for is that which has managed to reach us as consumers. Business models needs

In his excellent book The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg referenced a 1994 Harvard study of people who had dramatically changed their lives. Often their secret wasn’t momentous upheaval. It was just joining a group that consisted of the type of people they wanted to become.

Every second, millions of bits of information flood into our senses. Yet the human brain can only handle about 7 bits of information at once, and the shortest time it takes to discriminate one set of bits from another is one-eighteenth of a second.7 “By using these figures,” as Csikszentmihalyi explained in Flow, “one concludes that it is possible

If you accept the Markowitz proposition that the only risk you care about is the risk that you cannot diversify away, how do you measure the exposure of a company to this market-wide risk?

My rule of thumb for project managers is that if it takes longer than two weeks to get into the field, you need to scale it back and go smaller. Think you’ll eventually want to do this at scale with a letter, but the mail room is backed up?