modelthinking

2. Rules vs. patterns

Another way to think of essences versus sequences, especially when it comes to intellectual and creative tasks, is as a shift from the search for rules to a search for patterns .

In a pre-AI world, you needed to define the rules of the game you were playing—to think from first principles and apply them to your circumstances. In a p

The more I think of it, especially after the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, it seems more clear that we could be on a path much like in the 60s and 70s. In fact, there are a lot of parallels, not a perfect match, but striking:

Fiscal Policy:

Then:

LBJ’s Great Society + Vietnam → soaring government spending and persistent deficits.

Now:

Post-COVI

5. Explanations vs. predictions

The search for rules and essences, the obsession with process and sculpting, is ultimately a search for explanations . Explanations are the holy grail of the West—they are what we search for in science, business, and life. Consider the questions we tend to ask any successful person: “Can you explain how you got here? Wha

At Marathon, we believe that detailed forecasting adds little value.

Cash flows that are riskier should be assessed a lower value than more stable cash flows.

A French mathematical physicist had just made the disputatious claim that turbulence in fluids might have something to do with a bizarre, infinitely tangled abstraction that he called a strange attractor.

The secret to accelerated learning is superior organization.

In even approximate equilibrium, the variability Darwin both required and demonstrated existed was in conflict with the observed short-term stability in populations.

In general, the higher the predictability, the wider the range of predicted values.