modelthinking

Every model, whether LLM or ML, will operate best if it is focused and specializes in specific conclusions it is trying to make. For example, I will make ChatGPT bots for very specific parts of my research, reading, and trading processes. Create specialized bots and models, then structure them hierarchically. The goal is to run a suite of bots, mod

When I think about how specific companies, factors, technologies, or even countries function in this spread, it begins to clarify how I should identify the asymmetry that exists. The critical thing about this spread is that many times, there isn’t a high-quality way to quantify the moving parts. There is a reason that people who get hard science de

The whole point here is that just because you see that a new form of technology is a helpful tool to increase the speed of iteration, it doesn’t mean you can make money from it. The global economy is based on the exchange of goods and services between OTHER PEOPLE. This means that other people are using the same tools you are.

By this time, every si

The use of AI, machine learning, deep learning, and artificial intelligence are creating the perception that understanding the causal mechanics of a system or how the world actually works doesn’t matter because all I need to have is a marginal degree of statistical significance in my actions to make A TON of money.

The perception is that in today’s world, you don’t need to learn how to think as long as you can iterate faster than others.

The speed at which things are adapting is accelerating. Everyone can feel this, but not everyone is able to put their finger on HOW they should respond to it. The pitfall I see is that many old-school thinkers are ignoring the speed at which things are changing with the excuse of “this time isn’t different.” On the other side of the spectrum, you h

2. Algorithm and the Role of Bridging Agreement – How It Works: Rather than a simple majority rule or immediate publication, the tool uses a “bridging-based agreement algorithm” that evaluates notes based on whether people who typically disagree find them helpful. This anti- manipulation feature is designed to ensure the note is neutral and infor- mat

Top 5 Easy-to-Track Economic Indicators for Today's Economy 1. ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) • Released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management • Accessible via financial news sites, the ISM website, or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) • Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the services sector, which now dominates the

Recalibrating Traditional Indicators Some traditional indicators could be updated by: • Reweighting LEI components to reduce manufacturing emphasis • Incorporating digital transformation metrics into productivity calculations • Creating sector-specific sub-indices that acknowledge structural differences • Adding liquidity and fiscal policy impact a