modelthinking
Last week, we wrote that Trump’s “concession post to the BRICS” (“Looks like we lost India and Russia to China”) meant we will have global peace, a secularly lower USD, higher global nominal growth, higher global inflation, much higher gold prices over time, higher BTC, higher stocks and in time, rebalanced trade:
In the context of the preceding
Luke Gromen • FFTT “Tree Rings”: The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently
What are the tangible actions to take? 1. Build a durable base of specialized knowledge to understand and consistently interpret the world 2. Have the highest quality of information flow from the clearest thinkers 3. Identify all of the ways people don’t want to embrace uncertainty, chaos, imperfect knowledge, and risk. Take the bets no one else
... See moreKaustubhs • The Only Life Raft Left
The only durable edge comes from becoming the kind of person who can actively make decisions in real time, adapt as conditions evolve, and surround yourself with others who operate at that same level. Looking ahead, this reality also means that human capital will matter more than ever. The largest companies of the future will be built and run by
... See moreKaustubhs • The Only Life Raft Left
This accelerated pace of change is converging with the attention economy and the rise of social media, where complex problems are increasingly reduced to simple, all- in-one solutions. We see it in the way people sell Bitcoin, an altcoin, a tactical asset allocation strategy, or a trend-following system as the universal answer to every challenge in
... See moreKaustubhs • The Only Life Raft Left
When the pace of change in growth, inflation, and liquidity accelerates, the stability of returns erodes. What once could be managed with passive positioning now requires deliberate, active decisions. In a faster-moving environment, maintaining the same level of returns demands more frequent adjustments because the underlying drivers of asset
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Agency as a spectrum
In my opinion, this highlights the importance of the hiring channel. When employers want to shrink their workforce (or at least slow its growth), they use hiring as their primary lever; and when it’s time to expand/accelerate, they pull the same lever. Ergo, young people are highly levered to sectoral, occupational or economy-wide cycles, something
... See moreChandar, Brynjolfsson, Chen • Canaries in the Coal Mine
One thing that struck me about their core insight - that AI is having a negative impact on AI-exposed occupations - is that it seems a lot like what we’ve seen in prior sectoral crashes.
For instance, construction employment had a nasty contraction after 2006. And employment in younger age categories plummeted even as the employment of older workers
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