modelthinking

2. Algorithm and the Role of Bridging Agreement – How It Works: Rather than a simple majority rule or immediate publication, the tool uses a “bridging-based agreement algorithm” that evaluates notes based on whether people who typically disagree find them helpful. This anti- manipulation feature is designed to ensure the note is neutral and infor- mat

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Top 5 Easy-to-Track Economic Indicators for Today's Economy 1. ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) • Released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management • Accessible via financial news sites, the ISM website, or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) • Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the services sector, which now dominates the

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Recalibrating Traditional Indicators Some traditional indicators could be updated by: • Reweighting LEI components to reduce manufacturing emphasis • Incorporating digital transformation metrics into productivity calculations • Creating sector-specific sub-indices that acknowledge structural differences • Adding liquidity and fiscal policy impact a

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What are known market effects? Here’s a list:

Momentum - The tendency of assets that have performed well (poorly) in the recent past to continue performing well (poorly) in the near future

Trend - The tendency of asset prices to move in persistent directions over extended periods

Value - The tendency of relatively cheap assets to outperform relatively

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The sources of alpha can be segmented into four key areas:

Information: The advantage of possessing data that others do not.

Processing: The capacity to interpret and analyze data more effectively than others.

Modeling: The ability to design superior mathematical models that reflect market patterns and behaviors.

Speed: The advantage of acting quicker

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Steps would be the following:

1. Start with a Central Idea:

   
   
   

   • Begin your mind map with a core concept, like a company name or an industry.




2. Branch Out Naturally:

   
   
   

   • From this center, draw main branches for major categories (e.g., business, competitive advantage, etc.).

   
   
   

   • Each branch can then split into sub-branches.




3. Use Keywords and Images:

   
   
   

   • Replace lon

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from startup companies to communication protocols. As he wrote in “The Greatest Game“: When creating new technology companies, a framework I use to understand if something has an ability to win is ‘the 10x advantage’.

Meaning that, unless a new company (the challenger) can deliver a 10x advantage to the market, it has no chance of creating escape ve

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Welcome to the post-training era for startups

Training LLMs can be divided into two major phases: pre-training and post-training. The pre-training phase is an extremely expensive process that involves training a general model from a large corpus of data. Even in the case of DeepSeek, a single run of training costs $6 million, while it’s estimated th

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From the second law of thermodynamics, we know that entropy (i.e. disorder) of an isolated system always increases over time. Life in many ways represents the little pockets of pushback to that idea; it finds a way to organize things toward order in their little areas of the isolated system, at the cost of increasing disorder elsewhere. And humans

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