implementation

really any anomaly strategy, can be sustainable in the future: Investors will continue to suffer behavioral bias. Investors who delegate will be short-sighted performance chasers. We think we can rely on these two assumptions for the foreseeable future. And because of our faith in these assumptions, we believe there will always be opportunities for

We want to highlight that time-series and cross-sectional momentum are often used in a market-timing or asset-class selection context.

Addressing Market Failure Is the Legitimate Ground for Coercion The important thing for government is not to do things which individuals are doing already, and to do them a little better or a little worse; but to do those things which at present are not done at all. —John Maynard Keynes

States use the threat of violence in order to obtain obedience on taxation and behaviour. The state is not a parent, a philanthropist or a friend. The individual has a soul but the state is a soulless machine. The state can never be weaned away from violence to which it owes its existence. —Mahatma Gandhi

A failed state is one which fails to achieve a monopoly on violence in its territory—e.g., one in which militias and gangsters also have the capability to inflict violence upon the people. A successful state achieves a monopoly on violence in a given territory, and after that, we face questions about the extent to which it works in the best

At the Heart of the State Is Coercion A state is a human community that (successfully) claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory. —Max Weber, The Vocation Lectures, 1919

Machines for breadth, human intuition for depth

Sean Monahan, co-founder of K-Hole and writer of the 8Ball newsletter, recently argued that, with the advent of AI, the human trend forecaster will become obsolete. I disagree. What I think will happen instead is that LLMs will raise the standards for our trend research. Machine and human

On that template, AI looks like it has already finished the first act. The outer ring has cracked: neoclouds, “AI infra” smaller caps, and nuclear or power-adjacent trades are down 50% or more from their highs. That’s your paper-railway phase. The core of the story, Nvidia and a handful of megacaps, is still treated as the “safe” way to own AI, but

But from the perspective of Alibaba and JD, the motivation is broader. Instant delivery is increasingly becoming the way consumers interact with local commerce. If you control the app people open whenever they need something quickly, you control an important part of daily life. That position brings data, merchant relationships, and habit formation