Evergreen fund
The highest performing venture capitalists in any (rational) environment are likely to have a particularly raw and tactile interface with the world. They are maximally open-minded, energetically curious, and have mastered the reflective act of developing opinions about the future. Most importantly, they have escaped the cognitive prisons of... See more
Ghost in the Shell - Credistick
That fork in the road will be determined by whether or not the industry can develop a more sophisticated view on behavioral economics, and resist current incentives to embrace bias. This is part of a sustained battle to professionalise the strategy and squash rent-seeking grifters who achieved huge success in the ZIRP bull run.
Ghost in the Shell - Credistick
LLMs are powerful tools, but they are fundamentally backwards-looking in their reliance on training data, with limited ability to reason toward novel conclusions. Thus, they are quite specifically unsuited to early-stage venture capital investments where extreme idiosyncracy grapples with realities that may be a decade away.
That’s not to say they... See more
That’s not to say they... See more
Ghost in the Shell - Credistick
selection isnt automated…but use it everywhere else so i can focus on meetings deciding and winning
What’s particularly interesting about these studies (detailed below) is the clarity they provide about our vulnerability to cognitive biases. Where investors are able to reason objectively, they comfortably outperform algorithms. Where they can’t, they are soundly beaten.
Ghost in the Shell - Credistick
Write out a my biases into my process
The irony is that Power Law outcomes almost always come from market expansion or market creation, not from capturing a predictable percentage of an existing market.
Article
Paying $3 for a Dollar: The Rational Irrationality of Venture Capital
docs.google.comHistorically, I’ve believed no one really has special insights. It all comes down to execution and focus
I miss the old Qasar, not the new Qasar
this is the 2026 fund iv model
Ribbit wasn’t the lead investor in any of their biggest value drivers. They didn’t lead any of the initial rounds above for Coinbase, Robinhood, Nubank, Revolut, but still wrote meaningful checks and had exceptional returns.
Yavuzhan Yilancioglu • Allocator’s Notebook: Ribbit Capital Funds I-III, 2012-2017
As in the USV story, it is never too late to build what could potentially be the best fund in venture history. Micky was 38 years old when he founded Ribbit, having built five companies prior, most with good but none with generational success.