Decision Making
Danielle Vermeer and
Decision Making
@leahprime
Second, you possess even more imperfect knowledge of who you will be in the future. Consider, for a moment, what your life today would be if you were to dictate its future contours precisely and completely at the age of ten. Absurd!
Eigenrobot • You Are Going to Fuck This Up
Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (~100 Models Explained)
Farnam Streetfs.blog
thinking: there is a bias in decision-making which renders one big thing more important than lots of small things.
Third, you possess imperfect knowledge of other people upon whom the outcome of your decision relies; and you possess imperfect knowledge of their future state. In light of the last point, especially, marriage is an act of faith.
Eigenrobot • You Are Going to Fuck This Up
A way to prop up this kind of humility is to keep score. Use a decision journal. Write in your own words what you think will happen and why before a decision. Refer back to it later. See if you were right, and for the right reasons (think Bill Belichick’s famous 4th down decision against Indianapolis in 2009 which summarizes to: good decision,... See more