Bitcoin

The second point is that these open-source decentralized ledgers have network effects, and thus the largest and most robust one is the most valuable by far. If someone expects it to get completely disrupted at some point, then they might rationally avoid investing in it. If they instead expect that it’ll keep updating and remain in the lead with it... See more

After the latest bear market toward the end of 2023, over 70.7% of coins hadn’t moved in over a year. That figure is down to about 63.2% now, and so about 7.5% of previously locked-up coins have moved. I expect that this bull cycle still has room to run, although nobody can be sure. I consider it useful to monitor these waves of distribution to see... See more

Before we get to the crack-up-boom phase in this crypto bull market, I believe the crypto markets will experience a harrowing dump around Trump’s January 20th 2025 inauguration day. Maelstrom will be lightening up on certain positions in advance, hoping to rebuy some core positions at lower prices sometime in 1H25. Obviously, every trader says this... See more

When bitcoin is in a deep bear market, its market capitalization has historically dipped a bit below its on-chain cost basis. When bitcoin is near or below its cost basis, that has historically been an excellent buying opportunity, and in the past I’ve pounded the table on it when it reached those levels. There’s no guarantee it’ll reach those lows... See more

At the end of the day, continued fiscal deficits will increase US public debts, which requires more liquidity, more monetization and more currency debasement.

Which is good news for holders of scarce assets (equities, RE, gold, BTC, crypto).

Bitcoin is special. It was the first, and it’s still the most decentralized, credibly neutral, predictable, and reliable network. No other network can match its story, and perhaps no other will match these features.

Also, unlike most of its peers here, BTC makes no attempt to be a productive capital asset. Now, that may sound like a weakness at firs... See more

“I was discussing bitcoin with an investor yesterday and he replied somewhat dismissively ‘It’s just like buying gold’. No, it’s like buying gold in 1000 B.C. 99% of the financial wealth has yet to address bitcoin. When they do, bitcoin is either going to be worth zero or [up orders of magnitude].”

The argument in favor of a BSR is similar to the US’s rationale for stockpiling the largest amount of gold vs any other nation-state; it allows the US to assert financial supremacy over every other nation in the digital and physical realms. If Bitcoin is the hardest money ever known, then the strongest government fiat currency is the one whose cent... See more