Bitcoin

The first point is that in a world of closed-source centralized ledgers, an open-source decentralized ledger is valuable. Specifically how valuable is hard to say, but right now at $2 trillion it’s only worth about 0.2% of global capital. It would have to approximately 10x in price from here to reach the market capitalization of gold, which is... See more

The second point is that these open-source decentralized ledgers have network effects, and thus the largest and most robust one is the most valuable by far. If someone expects it to get completely disrupted at some point, then they might rationally avoid investing in it. If they instead expect that it’ll keep updating and remain in the lead with... See more

PoW Token Holders’ Net Income = – Issuance

Aside from being productive capital assets, you have likely heard some variation of these two other buckets for assets (neither of which are necessarily mutually exclusive with each other or capital assets):

• Consumable / Transformable Asset – Sometimes also classified as commodity or utility value. Cryptoassets offer infinitely programmable, fast,

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Yet history keeps proving that permanence eventually invites productivity.

After the latest bear market toward the end of 2023, over 70.7% of coins hadn’t moved in over a year. That figure is down to about 63.2% now, and so about 7.5% of previously locked-up coins have moved. I expect that this bull cycle still has room to run, although nobody can be sure. I consider it useful to monitor these waves of distribution to see... See more

Now, many potential catalysts for Bitcoin (and crypto generally) will rise in 2025. Here are a few:

• A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (at the U.S. Federal level)


• Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (at the U.S. State level)


• Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (for other countries globally)


• The removal of SAB-121


• Clear regulations out of the SEC and CFTC on crypto


• The Stablecoin

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Back in 2013, there was a point where 48.3% of the coins hadn’t moved in over a year, even though the network was still relatively young. The resulting bull market unlocked a lot of those coins, and the ratio fell to 35.7% in 2014. This was a 12.6% reduction in the ratio.

In early 2016 after a long bitcoin bear market, 61.5% of coins had not moved... See more

There exists no meaningful technical barrier between BTC vs. the field. Most other networks are obviously even technically more advanced. But we’re focused on the dollars and cents outcome here. Will any of these other assets be used in a similar manner over time as BTC, justifying valuations far in excess of their intrinsic value from producing... See more