You Are Going to Fuck This Up

problems. The reality is that we are prone to making mistakes, which when combined with incomplete information and lots of uncertainty, lead to poor outcomes. A bigger problem is what happens after the fact. Once outcomes are revealed, hindsight bias kicks in and lots of commentators suggest they knew what was going to happen before the fact.

any decision I make, to do anything at all with my time, is already radically limited. For one thing, it’s limited in a retrospective sense, because I’m already who I am and where I am, which determines what possibilities are open to me. But it’s also radically limited in a forward-looking sense, too, not least because a decision to do any given th

Ian pretended that not knowing what to do was the hard part. But, somewhere inside, I think Ian knew that making a choice about something is when the real uncertainty begins. The more terrifying kind of uncertainty is wanting something but not knowing how to get it. It is working toward something even though there is no sure thing. When we make cho