window—most of us can predict the effect (the ball will probably break the window). Human cognition works in this direction. But given the effect (the window is broken), we need much more information to deduce the cause (which boy threw the ball that broke it or even the fact that it was broken by a ball in the first place). It takes the mind of a

One of the most important things in any prediction is to make sure that you’re actually predicting what you think you’re predicting.