US Fed QE Needs to Restart Fast

Transition to QT Framework: QT is about reversing QE’s excesses and restoring balance-sheet normalcy.

QT 1.0 mostly let the portfolio “run off” (without reinvestment) but was muted by Treasury issuance patterns.

QT 2.0 takes a more active role—it seeks not only to shrink the balance sheet but also to alter its composition by favoring short-term reinv

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Global liquidity levels have stabilized following the Q4 dip. Four factors are underpinning them: (1) Improving Central Bank liquidity, due to the PBoC and ECB. Fed liquidity remains a cause for concern. (2) Collateral values (bonds) which are picking up, in part helped by (3) the loss of momentum in the US dollar. And finally (4), bond market vola... See more

The story going into FOMC tomorrow: The Fed needs to lower rates because the US needs to roll over $8-9 trillion of debt in 2025.

Rolling over $8-9 trillion at 2025’s higher rates (e.g., 4-5% vs. 1-2% pre-2022) increases interest expenses, projected at $1.1 trillion for 2024 and rising. This crowds out other spending, as interest now exceeds milita... See more

Notably, Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini recently published a paper about “Activist Treasury Issuance” which is their term that refers to the Treasury Department taking unusual actions to offset the Fed’s tightness. Both Miran and Roubini are economics PhDs and worked in various capacities with the Treasury Department in the past.

In the paper, th

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