US Fed QE Needs to Restart Fast
The world’s governments thus find themselves in an ever-shrinking box. And all it will take to trigger the crisis is a return to historically-normal levels of interest rates. As recently as 2000, 30-year Treasury bonds yielded over 6 percent and 30-year mortgages cost 7.5 percent. Let rates return to those levels and the global financial system imp
... See moreJohn Rubino • The Money Bubble
4th Quarter Commentary January 2024
A perspective on historical economic eras and the implications for current market risks and investment strategies, with a focus on factors such as global trade, labor arbitrage, and the rise of China.
horizonkinetics.com
In the Treasury market, following several consecutive days of deteriorating conditions, market participants reported an acute decline in market liquidity. A number of primary dealers found it especially difficult to make markets in off-the-run Treasury securities and reported that this segment of the market had ceased to function effectively. This
... See moreLyn Alden • May 2024 Newsletter: The Bond Market Is the “Dumb Money” Now
If we go into a downturn, we hope central banks will be wise enough not to monetize government debt in any fiscal crisis. Sadly, they probably will.
Jonathan Tepper • Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything
The story going into FOMC tomorrow: The Fed needs to lower rates because the US needs to roll over $8-9 trillion of debt in 2025.
Rolling over $8-9 trillion at 2025’s higher rates (e.g., 4-5% vs. 1-2% pre-2022) increases interest expenses, projected at $1.1 trillion for 2024 and rising. This crowds out other spending, as interest now exceeds milita... See more
Rolling over $8-9 trillion at 2025’s higher rates (e.g., 4-5% vs. 1-2% pre-2022) increases interest expenses, projected at $1.1 trillion for 2024 and rising. This crowds out other spending, as interest now exceeds milita... See more