they’re both dependent on recreational bettors to make their profits. In
they’re both dependent on recreational bettors to make their profits. In
what good is a prediction if you aren’t willing to put money on it?
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
The financialization of culture has manifested in two primary ways: lottery culture and equity culture.
John Luttig • Finance as culture
Markets with overconfident traders will produce extremely high trading volumes, increased volatility, strange correlations in stock prices from day to day, and below-average returns for active traders—all the things that we observe in the real world.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
the paper that referenced the “Gambler’s Ruin problem,” a theory that no matter how much money you have in a betting scenario, the casino (or house) has an infinite amount of money, and therefore, if you keep making bets, the house will eventually win.
Nick Bilton • American Kingpin: Catching the Billion-Dollar Baron of the Dark Web
Is America’s increasing penchant for gambling another sign of stagnation?
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
I pay quite a bit of attention to what the consensus view is—what a market like Intrade is saying—when I make a forecast. It is never an absolute constraint. But the further I move away from that consensus, the stronger my evidence has to be before I come to the view that I have things right and everyone else has it wrong. This attitude, I think, w
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
The aggregate money is made betting on, rather than against, the momentum. You’ll
Art Collins • BEATING THE FINANCIAL FUTURES MARKET: The 2020 Almanac (Beating the Financial Futures Market Almanacs Book 3)
Between all forms of gambling, Americans are probably making in excess of $1 trillion in bets annually.