As researchers in political science and as economists, we see three enticing advantages of forecasts from prediction markets, compared with poll-based forecasts of election outcomes: 1) Markets have full coverage of outcomes. They covered all primaries and caucuses in 2016, when polls covered about 50 percent of possible contests. Similarly, for Br... See more

Solid piece — I especially appreciated @pjchougule’s origin story, and his point that “insider trading” in prediction markets is generally a feature not a bug (as my colleague @ZackPokorny_ has also argued). However, Polymarket and Robin Hanson are conspicuous by their absence. https://t.co/5fnvKPEd6D