added by Lucas Kohorst · updated 14d ago
The folly of making political prediction markets like Intrade illegal
- The precision that makes them so theoretically useful is itself a curse for their liquidity, so prediction market evangelists should welcome all new traders with open arms.
from Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke by Tanner Hoke
Lucas Kohorst added
The Fall Of Intrade And The Business Of Betting On Real Life
Lucas Kohorst added
- Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal