Survivorship Bias
xkcd.com
Survivorship Bias
“Training by way of tragedy. When things are going up you tend to correlate it with talent, when things are going down you tend to correlate it with luck.” – Chris Sacca
Harry Stebbings • 20VC: Chris Sacca on Coming Out of Retirement To Unf**k The Planet with Lowercarbon, How Chris Evaluates His Relationship To Money Today, Why We Have Bred a Generation of Ass****...
Successful people tell the world they got lucky but then tell their loved ones about the importance of hard work and sacrifice. Critics of successful people tell the world those successful people got lucky and then tell their loved ones about the importance of hard work and sacrifice.
Rob Henderson • Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class
If you're outperforming an efficient market without any edge, you are Uncle George, and you should quit while you're ahead. If you’re convinced you do have an edge, but you notice that you are not sitting atop an enormous pile of money, you might consider the possibility that you are wrong.
Richard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
In 1,000 parallel universes, you want to be wealthy in 999 of them. You don’t want to be wealthy in the fifty of them where you got lucky, so we want to factor luck out of it.
Tim Ferriss • The Almanack of Naval Ravikant: A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- Champion Bias
We assume winners have the best advice, but those who win rarely examine why they won, while those who lose often regretfully dwell on their mistakes. So you’ll often obtain the best advice on winning not from winners but from losers.