Saved by Kaustubh Sule
Spiralling Government Debt Isn’t a Choice
As I will show, some of these responses require an unsustainable increase in debt, and so are temporary. There are, it turns out, two sustainable responses to a forced increase in the savings rate in one part of the economy. The first is an equivalent increase in productive investment. The second is an increase in unemployment.
Michael Pettis • The Great Rebalancing
For most of the 2020s, the driving economic force will be low growth in productivity, decreased opportunities for investment of accumulated capital, and low interest rates. It will also be a period of increasing unemployment, driven by continued decline in industry and stagnation in high tech as the result of the maturation of the core technology.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's discord, the coming crisis of the 2020s, and the triumph beyond
Let us give you one scenario that worries us. Congress shows no discipline and lets the budget run through a few more trillion in the next two years. The Fed has been successful in reflating the economy after it has embarked on even more aggressive quantitative easing. The bond markets get very nervous, and longer-term rates start to rise. What lit
... See moreJonathan Tepper • Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything
We are coming up short on the revenue side, so it is harder to pay our debts, whether individuals, businesses, or governments. That situation means ongoing financial hardships, including crises of sovereign debt around the world.
Tyler Cowen • The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better: A Penguin eSpecial from Dutton
While deficits of $1T+ per year, with debt repayments of nearly $1T themselves, people think this is unsustainable short term and will combust. I disagree, there is atleast a 5-10 year runway without the existential crisis, however as I said in TechDollar 1, it will get worse every year, the money printing will exacerbate all the issues internally ... See more
Dan • Tech Dollar 2: The War of the Worlds and Fate of the Dollar
This squares solidly with the work done by Rogoff and Reinhart, showing that when the debt of a country reaches about 100 percent of GDP, there is a reduction in potential GDP growth of about 1 percent. As we wrote earlier, government debt and spending do not increase productivity. That takes private investment. And if government debt crowds out pr
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